Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. Mike Trout: Which player would you rather possess for the next decade?

I introduced this up just a few weeks within the past while pinch-hitting for Buster Olney on the Baseball Tonight podcast: No longer factoring in salaries, who would you rather possess for the next 10 seasons, Mike Trout or Fernando Tatis Jr.?

That modified into correct three weeks into the season, but Tatis hasn’t indubitably slowed since, hitting .313/.395/.660 while main the Nationwide League with 13 house runs and the majors with 33 RBIs, stealing bases, making acrobatic plays within the discipline, hitting mighty slams on 3-0 pitches, and serving to transform the San Diego Padres into essentially the most thrilling group in baseball. All at 21 years of age.

Trout, within the interim, is now a grizzled obsolete of 29, taking part in in what we call his age-28 season (he turned 29 in August). He is hitting .269/.359/.602 with 12 house runs and 32 RBIs. It be no longer the very finest triple-gash line of his profession, nonetheless or no longer it is easiest 32 games and or no longer it is additionally a 56-house bustle dash over 150 games.

Trout has in actuality been the unquestioned most effective player within the game since the Angels known as him reduction up to the majors in unhurried April 2012, after a 40-game cameo in 2011. He hasn’t won the MVP award each and every season — but he has won three and done 2nd within the vote casting four times, and fourth as soon as, and that modified into while taking part in in easiest 114 games that three hundred and sixty five days. There were transient contenders to the throne: Mookie Betts won MVP honors in 2018 with a fearless season, perchance Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman had greater seasons closing three hundred and sixty five days. But no player has displaced him but, and that eight-three hundred and sixty five days bustle as the very finest within the biz is grand.

Tatis, nonetheless, is making a bustle. There are actually other stars who may perchance perchance be the heir obvious — no longer correct Betts, Bellinger or Bregman, but even younger players similar to Juan Soto or Ronald Acuna Jr. — however the story in our shortened 2020 season belongs to Tatis, so we will level of interest on him.

In point of fact, you may perchance additionally argue that the above quiz is silly. He has outperformed Trout to this level this season, he’s eight years younger, and including his 84-game rookie season of 2019, he’s credited with 6.5 WAR in 121 profession games — that is 8.1 prorated over 150 games. Trout, with that profession-low .359 OBP to this level and a few unhappy defensive metrics has been credited with correct 0.8 WAR — or 3.8 over 150 games.

That is infrequently case closed. Yelp:

• Don’t overreact to 30-one thing games, both positive or detrimental. Trout is hitting correct .269, but his Statcast numbers counsel there has been some inappropriate honest correct fortune there, with an expected moderate of .292 in step with his quality of contact. His toddle fee is effectively beneath his profession norms, nonetheless it has been spiking reduction up all all over again. He drew easiest 5 walks in his first 16 games but 12 in his subsequent 16, so survey for the batting moderate and OBP to climb.

• Tatis has a .316 profession moderate, but he’s additionally utilizing a profession BABIP of .394. As laborious as he hits the ball, that is no longer sustainable over the long haul. For him to reduction hitting .300, he’ll possess to strike out less. Certainly, his overall come would no longer but meet Trout’s high standards — at the same time as a 21-three hundred and sixty five days-obsolete Trout who walked 110 times and posted a .432 OBP. This three hundred and sixty five days, Trout has a drag fee of correct 14% when compared to 25% for Tatis.

Alternatively:

• The defensive metrics are a cramped pertaining to for Trout — minus-5 defensive runs saved. Statcast metrics scandalous his soar ranking — how posthaste he reacts to the ball — within the first percentile, with first being lowest and 100th being most effective. So his reactions were sluggish this three hundred and sixty five days. May perchance well seemingly be one thing, will seemingly be nothing, nonetheless it will additionally point out an eventual trail to left discipline sooner in place of later. Tatis, within the interim, after some considerations as a rookie as to whether he’d remain at shortstop long bustle has alleviated those worries with improved defense.

• Obvious, perchance Tatis will by no come toddle 100 times a three hundred and sixty five days like Trout, but he’s infrequently a hacker in, say, the Javier Baez mode. His drag fee is correct barely above league moderate, he has improved from closing three hundred and sixty five days and is at possibility of reduction making improvements to. As for strikeouts, he’s absolutely hanging out less veritably than Trout this three hundred and sixty five days.

As thrilling as Tatis has been, now we possess to keep in mind he hasn’t even played a plump season of games. Be aware when Jason Heyward modified into a principal particular person at 20 and easiest going to get well? We’re additionally comparing him to no longer correct a generational expertise but an all-time expertise. Whereas you would in most cases steal the 21-three hundred and sixty five days-obsolete principal particular person over the 28-three hundred and sixty five days-obsolete principal particular person, Trout is no longer your no longer new celeb. Alternatively, what we’re asserting about Tatis is what we had been asserting about Trout when he modified into 21.

Earlier than making your dedication, I thought it would be fun to survey reduction at historical past and plot from the same comparisons. All “most effective player within the game” players are from their age-28 seasons and we will catch a corresponding young principal particular person from the the same season.

Albert Pujols, 2008: .357, 37 HR, 9.2 WAR, MVP

Evan Longoria (22 years obsolete): .272, 27 HR, 4.8 WAR, 11th in MVP vote casting

Pujols won his 2nd of three MVP awards with perchance his most effective season. It be no longer veritably a major baseman is acknowledged as the very finest player within the game, but Pujols done decrease than third within the MVP easiest as soon as between 2002 and 2010, a grand bustle of consistency. First basemen don’t veritably age effectively, but as the very finest hitter within the game, Pujols gave the look of that rare hitter who would remain among the many very finest within the game effectively into his 30s.

Longoria modified into the very finest young player in 2008, the AL Rookie of the three hundred and sixty five days for the Rays after they improbably went from closing place to the World Series. He hit 27 house runs and drove in 85 runs in easiest 122 games while taking part in beautiful defense (he’d take a Gold Glove the next two seasons).

Pujols subsequent 10 seasons: 36.2 WAR


Longoria subsequent 10 seasons: 48.7 WAR

Pujols had easiest two extra celeb seasons, started to claim no in his last three hundred and sixty five days with St. Louis in 2011 and naturally his time with the Angels has been disappointing. Longoria modified into terrific from 2009 to 2011 (moderate WAR of seven.5), though extra favorite than spectacular after that. As a 22-three hundred and sixty five days-obsolete, he wasn’t on the level we have got considered from Tatis or Soto, so I would were inclined to steal Pujols reduction in 2008, but Longoria modified into greater the next 10 seasons.

Alex Rodriguez, 2004: .286, 36 HR, 7.6 WAR, 14th in MVP vote casting

Miguel Cabrera (21): .294, 33 HR, 3.5 WAR, 22nd in MVP vote casting

This modified into A-Rod’s first season with the Yankees — though no longer his most effective, as he won MVP honors with the Rangers in 2003 and won all all over again in 2005. Mute, he would were lawful up with Barry Bonds and Pujols as the very finest player within the game (Vladimir Guerrero won AL MVP honors with a 5.6-WAR season). Cabrera modified into in his first plump season and clearly regarded like a future principal particular person given his energy and expertise to hit for moderate at a young age. His defensive shortcomings (he modified into taking part in within the outfield in 2004) decrease into his cost, but he if truth be told had most effective-hitter-in-the-game doable.

Rodriguez subsequent 10: 44.6 WAR


Cabrera subsequent 10: 55.8 WAR

Cabrera had colossal numbers in 2004 — but so did diverse hitters. He ranked correct 38th within the majors in OPS. Throw in his defense and I deem you steal A-Rod for the next 10 seasons. Certainly, A-Rod would take two extra MVPs (adding a 3rd in 2007 when he hit 54 house runs with 156 RBIs), Mute, it modified into the younger player who modified into extra treasured. A-Rod would warfare accidents and decline in his mid-30s. Cabrera, within the interim, did blossom into the very finest hitter within the game — though no longer until 2010 at age 27, when he got into greater condition. His numbers indubitably got greater from 27 to 33 as offense across the game modified into declining.

Ken Griffey Jr., 1998: .284, 56 HR, 6.6 WAR, fourth in MVP vote casting


Andruw Jones (21): .271, 31 HR, 7.4 WAR

Griffey had won MVP honors in 1997 and adopted that up with a 2nd straight 56-homer season and any other Gold Glove. His moderate did dip beneath .300 for the first time since his rookie season (instead of his injury three hundred and sixty five days of 1995) and he modified into overshadowed that three hundred and sixty five days by Sammy Sosa and Designate McGwire, but he modified into soundless in most cases sensible as the very finest player within the game (along with Barry Bonds).

We did no longer possess WAR in 1998, finally, so no person then realized how treasured Jones modified into — but that is how lawful his defense modified into. When you occur to may perchance additionally be obsolete enough to keep in mind a young Jones owning center discipline, you may perchance be pleased and label Baseball-Reference crediting him with 35 runs saved on defense.

Griffey subsequent 10: 18.2 WAR


Jones subsequent 10: 48.5 WAR

Here’s a fun one since we’re comparing two center fielders. As lawful as Jones modified into on D, he wasn’t the hitter Griffey modified into (a 21-three hundred and sixty five days-obsolete Griffey hit .327). Jones had energy, but this modified into height steroids expertise and Jones’ 31 house runs had been tied for correct 27th within the majors. Presently, Griffey soundless regarded as if he’d be one of many 10 finest players of all time. I deem you would possess taken Griffey’s subsequent 10 years. As an alternative, he got traded to the Reds, may perchance no longer extinguish healthy and Jones modified into unparalleled extra treasured — though Jones in his 30s had a rapid downfall like Griffey.

Joe Morgan, 1972: .292, 16 HR, 9.3 WAR, fourth in MVP vote casting


Cesar Cedeno (21): .320, 22 HR, 8.0 WAR, sixth in MVP vote casting

Here’s a lawful one. Morgan and Cedeno had been teammates with the Astros in 1971, however the Reds obtained Morgan in a single of the very finest trades of all time. Removed from the cavernous Astrodome, Morgan blossomed into the very finest player within the game. Cedeno had one of many colossal age-21 seasons of all time (fifth-most sensible WAR), hitting 22 house runs despite taking part in within the Astrodome, stealing 55 bases and successful a Gold Glove.

Morgan subsequent 10: 59.5 WAR


Cedeno subsequent 10: 38.9 WAR

Obviously, no person in 1972 knew Morgan modified into the very finest player within the game — though he did extinguish fourth within the MVP vote casting that three hundred and sixty five days. If we steal a 2020 mindset to those players and fake we’re reduction in 1972, the brink has to head to Cedeno. You may perchance seemingly envision him perchance getting even greater and hitting for extra energy. Morgan modified into a diminutive 2nd baseman and also you would possess to apprehension about how he would age.

As an alternative, Morgan would be one of many very finest players in his 30s of all time — successful MVP awards in 1975 and 1976, and ranking 14th all time in WAR from ages 30 to 39. Cedeno had one extra monster season but modified into by no are available in an enviornment to repeat what he did at 21 and 22. He modified into a lawful player but no longer the celeb every person projected. The Astros moved the fences reduction in 1977, which damage his energy numbers. One theory, nonetheless, is that Cedeno modified into by no come the the same after an incident within the Dominican Republic in December 1973. Cedeno modified into in a resort room with a girl who died after a gun modified into discharged; authorities determined the 2 had been ingesting and participating in around with the gun and Cedeno modified into charged with involuntary manslaughter and spent 20 days in reformatory.

Carl Yastrzemski, 1968: .301, 23 HR, 10.5 WAR, ninth in MVP vote casting


Johnny Bench (20): .275, 15 HR, 5.0 WAR, 16th in MVP vote casting

Yaz’s vital Triple Crown season modified into 1967, but he posted a 2nd straight 10-WAR season in 1968. His numbers don’t survey colossal, nonetheless it modified into 1968 and he modified into the easiest AL hitter to hit .300 and he led the league in moderate, walks, OBP and OPS. Bench modified into the Rookie of the three hundred and sixty five days and so spectacular on defense that he won the Gold Glove.

Yastrzemski subsequent 10: 43.8 WAR


Bench subsequent 10: 59.5 WAR

This may perchance were a tricky different. Yaz modified into SO lawful in 1967 and 1968, and a colossal left fielder, that it would were laborious no longer to make a selection him. Alternatively, Bench modified into already a superior defender at a top fee space and confirmed energy doable on the plate.

Yaz’s profession after 1968 modified into a cramped in each and each place. He did hit 40 house runs in both 1969 and 1970, but then by no come hit 30 all all over again. He hit .329 in 1970 but topped .300 easiest as soon as after that. He played forever, but 1970 modified into his last high-10 MVP extinguish. Bench, within the interim, turned perchance the very finest catcher of all time, successful MVP honors in 1970 and 1972.

Frank Robinson, 1964: .306, 29 HR, 7.9 WAR, fourth in MVP vote casting


Jim Fregosi (22): .277, 18 HR, 7.9 WAR, 13th in MVP vote casting

OK, perchance Robinson wasn’t slightly the very finest player within the game in 1964 — he modified into taking part in on the the same time as Willie Mays and Hank Aaron, finally. But he modified into lawful up there. Fregosi modified into the very finest young player, making the All-Star group for the Angels and mixing lawful energy for a shortstop with a .369 OBP.

Robinson subsequent 10: 47.5 WAR


Fregosi subsequent 10: 34.8 WAR

Reds proprietor Invoice DeWitt would replace Robinson after the 1965 season, declaring him “no longer a young 30.” So DeWitt positively would possess long gone with Fregosi. Robinson won the Triple Crown and MVP honors for the Orioles in 1966 and remained one of many very finest energy hitters within the game deep into his 30s. Fregosi is most effective remembered for when the Mets traded Nolan Ryan to construct up him in 1972 — at which level Fregosi’s knees had long gone inappropriate. He made 5 extra All-Star teams after 1964 and modified into if truth be told a lawful player, but his age-22 season proved to be his most effective season.

Willie Mays, 1959: .313, 34 HR, 7.8 WAR, sixth in MVP vote casting


Ernie Banks, 1959: .304, 45 HR, 10.2 WAR, MVP


Vada Pinson (20): .316, 20 HR, 6.5 WAR, 15th in MVP vote casting

Here’s a fun one, on epic of now we possess two 28-three hundred and sixty five days-olds who may perchance additionally lay dispute to most effective player within the game (along with Hank Aaron). Banks won his 2nd straight MVP award so he would possess seemingly drawn the consensus vote as most effective within the game within the mean time in time. Pinson regarded as if he would be joining their ranks quickly enough. A rapid center fielder for the Reds in his first plump season, he led the league in runs (131) and doubles (47), and hit 20 house runs and stealing 21 bases. Who enact you steal for the next 10 years?

Mays subsequent 10: 84.2 WAR


Banks subsequent 10: 26.0 WAR


Pinson subsequent 10: 41.6 WAR

Smartly … it wasn’t conclude. Mays would remarkably moderate 8.4 WAR over the next 10 seasons. He may perchance additionally possess won seven or eight MVP awards (he won easiest one extra, in 1965). Banks’ knees went inappropriate, he moved over to first unfriendly and he wasn’t the the same player. Pinson had a extremely lawful profession — he done with 2,700 hits and hit .343 in 1961 — but repeatedly lived below the shadow of how lawful he modified into at a young age. The burden of expectations.

Duke Snider, 1955: .309, 42 HR, 8.6 WAR, 2nd in MVP vote casting


Al Kaline (20): .340, 27 HR, 8.3 WAR, 2nd in MVP vote casting


Hank Aaron (21): .314, 27 HR, 6.2 WAR, ninth in MVP vote casting

One extra. Snider modified into lawful there in 1955 alongside Mays and Mickey Mantle as the very finest within the game — the three center fielders in Fresh York. But which of the young lawful fielders would you may perchance additionally possess cherished greater? Doubtlessly Kaline, lawful? He modified into a three hundred and sixty five days younger, had been a cramped greater, had that colossal throwing arm …

Snider subsequent 10: 21.0 WAR


Kaline subsequent 10: 53.6 WAR


Aaron subsequent 10: 80.9 WAR

How lawful modified into Aaron? Kaline went on to a major-ballotHall of Reputation profession — and but Aaron soundless without problems surpassed him. Snider did no longer age so effectively. He led the NL in OBP and slugging in 1956 and hit 40 house runs in 1957, but after the group moved to Los Angeles in 1958, his numbers dipped. The 440-foot fence in lawful discipline on the L.A. Coliseum obviously did no longer aid, but he additionally had a inappropriate knee after he suffered a spring coaching auto accident and he would additionally style out reduction complications after that.

Are there any conclusions to plot from these comparisons? I convey you would lean in direction of the younger player in a blind plot, despite the incontrovertible truth that it appears glaring to guess on the older celeb. The older player will decline at some level and then faces the double whammy of increased likelihood of accidents. But as Cedeno and Pinson confirmed, a young principal particular person would no longer repeatedly toughen. Infrequently he’s as lawful at 21 as he’ll ever be — and on the present time’s young players like Tatis and Soto are already so polished.

Trout is so veritably and rightfully when compared to Mays that we steal he’ll dominate effectively into his 30s correct as Mays did. Mays won that MVP in 1965 at age 34 — when he hit .317 with a profession-high 52 house runs. Mays, finally, is an outlier. Simplest Babe Ruth and Honus Wagner earned extra profession WAR from ages 29 to 38.

Can Trout purchase taking part in on the the same level the come Mays did? Given what we have got considered from Tatis, if he wants to reduction his crown he correct may perchance additionally possess to.