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Texas head coach Shaka EngagingCharlie Neibergall/Associated Press
The first round of the males’s NCAA occasion is the most sharp two days of the sports calendar.
Here is now no longer delivery for debate.
But what is highly arguable is which 32 teams will emerge victorious from the carnage.
We now own spent the previous few days poring by the records, inspecting and agonizing over where to flip for doubtless upsets. All of that digging has been boiled the general way down to a pretty clear-cut “this team wins if…” structure.
Be obvious to ascertain reduction on the entire, as the predictions shall be changed with recaps and some forward-taking a see tips almost today after the conclusion of every contest.
Pregame diagnosis written by Kerry Miller.
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Florida’s Tre MannTicket Humphrey/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Virginia Tech (South Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 12: 15 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Wishes to be a accurate, evenly matched delivery to the first round, but the closing time either of these teams beat an opponent who made the NCAA occasion was January 30 (Virginia Tech over Virginia and Florida over West Virginia).
Florida Wins If: Tre Mann remains on fire. Florida’s lead guard has scored now no longer now no longer up to 21 components in each of his closing four games, and Virginia Tech’s perimeter defense is now no longer anything worth writing dwelling about. Noah Locke could well perchance also moreover bury the Hokies with three-pointers, but he is now no longer almost the attain-it-all guy that Mann has been currently.
Virginia Tech Wins If: 2nd-likelihood components play a large factor. Neither team is lethal on the offensive glass, but Virginia Tech is one in all the simpler defensive rebounding teams that made the occasion while Florida is one in all the worst. The Gators went 5-7 when allowing now no longer now no longer up to 10 offensive rebounds, and the Hokies own three starters who irascible within the finish 500 within the nation in offensive rebounding share.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Scottie Lewis for Florida and Keve Aluma for Virginia Tech. Even supposing Mann has been the Gators’ essential person currently, Lewis is the inconsistent uber-athlete who can scheme a serious difference on either finish of the ground. And Aluma leads the Hokies in components, rebounds and blocks. Onerous to ascertain them pulling off this minor upset if he has an off evening.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Virginia Tech
Kerry Miller: Florida
Joel Reuter: Virginia Tech
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Arkansas’ Moses SullenMichael Woods/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 14 Colgate (South Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 12: 45 p.m. ET (truTV)
One-Sentence Synopsis: In the occasion you are a fan of excessive-scoring, up-and-down games, you will abilities this war between two of the five fastest-paced teams within the self-discipline.
Arkansas Wins If: Raw abilities reigns supreme. Arkansas has a lottery pick in Moses Sullen, a nationwide Sixth Man of the Year candidate in JD Notae, a 7’3″ shot-blockading heart in Connor Vanover and heaps extra abilities that must be ready to defeat a team relish Colgate now no longer now no longer up to 9 instances out of 10.
Colgate Wins If: The NET was true about Colgate. As a long way as KenPom rankings are concerned, here’s No. 18 Arkansas vs. No. 84 Colgate. But within the NET, or now no longer it is No. 14 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Colgate. The Raiders are tremendous ambiance pleasant, and the hole between their three-level share on offense (40.0) and on defense (26.1) is accurate absurd. But they moreover didn’t face a single team rated higher than No. 189 by KenPom. Going from Navy to Arkansas is highly the leap.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Notae for Arkansas and Jordan Burns for Colgate. Sullen is the most sharp essential person for the Razorbacks, but he can roll up and doing and rating 15 components. Notae’s efficiency off the bench could well perchance also effectively opt if here’s a shut recreation. He’ll often be tasked with going head-to-head with Colgate’s essential person level guard. Burns leads the Raiders in components, assists and steals at 17.0, 5.3 and 1.6, respectively.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Arkansas
Kerry Miller: Arkansas
Joel Reuter: Arkansas
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Michael Conroy/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 16 Drexel (Midwest Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 1: 15 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: If there could be going to be a 16-over-1 upset—which is an awfully, gigantically colossal IF—it would opt to be this one, since Drexel is grand better than any assorted No. 16 seed, to boot to most of the No. 15 seeds.
Illinois Wins If: The offense does anything shut to what it always does. Drexel’s defense is highly inaccurate, and Illinois averages better than 81 components per recreation. In truth, the Illini own scored now no longer now no longer up to 72 components in 16 consecutive games. Help that high-tail going and they also’ll deserve to own minute explain slaying these Dragons.
Drexel Wins If: It remains hot sizzling from three-level range. Drexel is an unconscious 57-of-111 (51.4 p.c) from three over its closing six games. And while Illinois does reasonably just a few things reasonably effectively, three-level defense is a cramped explain. In games where opponents shot 40 p.c or better from distance, Illinois went 5-4 with four of those wins coming by eight components or fewer. A repeat of UMBC’s 12-of-24 efficiency three years ago towards Virginia could well perchance also now no longer now no longer up to scheme things sharp.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Kofi Cockburn for Illinois and Mate Okros for Drexel. One in every of the most sharp X-components to take an look on in this occasion is Cockburn’s free-throw shooting. Or now no longer it is one in all the most sharp things that can perchance neutralize the massive man, and some spruce team goes to place him on the charity stripe 25 instances in a recreation. And the most up to this level of Drexel’s sizzling shooters is Okros, who is 12-of-17 (70.6 p.c) over his closing four games.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Illinois
Kerry Miller: Illinois
Joel Reuter: Illinois
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Texas Tech’s Kyler EdwardsJustin Rex/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Utah Advise (South Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 1: 45 p.m. ET (TNT)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Flipping between this recreation and Arkansas-Colgate is now no longer going to be for the aged of heart, as Texas Tech and Utah Advise are grand extra inclined to mix for 100 components than own either team attain that threshold.
Texas Tech Wins If: It makes now no longer now no longer up to seven three-pointers. The Red Raiders don’t appear to be generally grand of a perimeter-oriented bunch, but they are 8-0 when making now no longer now no longer up to seven triples and preserving their opponent under 80. The latter section of that equation shouldn’t be a explain, and the inclined would be massive within the hunt to decrease Neemias Queta’s impact for the Aggies.
Utah Advise Wins If: It owns the offensive glass. Utah Advise is grand extra of a defensive team than an offensive one, shooting under 45 p.c from the self-discipline on the season. But one location where the Aggies excel is second-likelihood alternatives. In the meantime, struggling to finish defensive possessions with rebounds would be Texas Tech’s most sharp weak point.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Kyler Edwards for Texas Tech and Neemias Queta for Utah Advise. If the Red Raiders need threes, Edwards is their most sharp supply for those shots. (Mac McClung will indubitably elevate his ultimate portion, as effectively, but he’s easiest a 33.3 p.c shooter.) And Queta is the 7’0″ heart and soul of the Aggies. He had 18 components, 14 rebounds and 9 blocks within the attain-or-die recreation towards Colorado Advise.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Utah Advise
Kerry Miller: Utah Advise
Joel Reuter: Utah Advise
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Ohio Advise’s Duane Washington Jr.Michael Conroy/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 2 Ohio Advise vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts (South Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 3 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Both of these teams can rating in bunches, and neither defense is anything shut to stingy.
Ohio Advise Wins If: It doesn’t web flustered by any Oral Roberts runs. The Golden Eagles can opt fire in a flee, and Ohio Advise’s defense is a obvious red flag for later rounds. But as long as the Buckeyes—who own the fourth-most ambiance pleasant offense and the 13th-most turnover-averse offense within the nation—do no longer web uncharacteristically sloppy, they’ll be ready to bigger than acquire breeze towards an Oral Roberts team that has, by a long way, the least ambiance pleasant defense within the self-discipline.
Oral Roberts Wins If: Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor explode. The inclined leads the nation in scoring at 24.4 components per recreation, and the latter is now no longer a long way within the reduction of at 18.2. And it wasn’t accurate towards Summit League defenses. In five-level losses at Oklahoma Advise and Wichita Advise, they combined for 49 and 55 components, respectively. It could in all probability perchance perchance also elevate closer to 70 between the two to own of enterprise in this one, but you by no technique know.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Duane Washington Jr. for Ohio Advise and Max Abmas for Oral Roberts. Washington has the most hero-ball traits on the Buckeyes roster, so now no longer getting flustered starts with him. If he tries to drag heat-check three for heat-check three with Abmas and Obanor, Ohio Advise could well perchance also web into some be troubled.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Ohio Advise
Kerry Miller: Ohio Advise
Joel Reuter: Ohio Advise
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Baylor’s Jared ButlerCharlie Riedel/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Hartford (South Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 3: 30 p.m. ET (truTV)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Well, it was a team from Hartford’s convention (America East) that pulled off the most sharp No. 16 over No. 1 upset in males’s NCAA occasion history…
Baylor Wins If: Any of its three most sharp strengths divulge their own praises up for the first round. As long as the Bears scheme better than two-fifths of their three-level attempts, power turnovers on one-fourth of Hartford’s possessions or web reduction three-eighths of conceivable offensive rebounds, they shouldn’t own any topic with the Hawks.
Harford Wins If: All hell breaks loose. There’s nothing the Hawks attain notably effectively, and they also easiest averaged 55.0 components in two customary-season games towards Connecticut and Villanova. Or now no longer it is going to raise technique greater than that to beat a title contender relish Baylor, but that’s why they play the games.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Jared Butler for Baylor and Miroslav Stafl for Hartford. Baylor’s ragged chief and doubtless unanimous first-team All-American will can own to be the stabilizer if things web a bit bumpy. And one massive difference for Hartford from those early games towards Substantial East teams is they didn’t own Stafl reduction then. The massive man (6’10”, 235 lbs) from the Czech Republic now no longer now no longer up to makes the Hawks extra intrepid than they former to be.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Baylor
Kerry Miller: Baylor
Joel Reuter: Baylor
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Loyola-Chicago’s Cameron KrutwigCharlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 8 Loyola-Chicago vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech (Midwest Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 4 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: A engaging-to-forecast showdown between two under-seeded teams with knowledgeable Sweet 16 doubtless.
Loyola-Chicago Wins If: Protection reigns supreme. No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency is a colossal plight to be. That’s where it’s good to well acquire the Ramblers, who own allowed accurate 55.5 components per recreation. They don’t commit fouls, they set up now no longer permit offensive rebounds, they attain power a accurate deal of turnovers and they also attain all of it at one in all the slowest paces within the nation. Particularly, Georgia Tech went 0-2 this season towards Virginia, averaging (what are the percentages?) 55.5 components in those games.
Georgia Tech Wins If: It forces its customary present of turnovers. Georgia Tech does an extraordinary job of applying fixed ball stress, rating second within the nation in pick share. Alternatively, the Yellow Jackets went accurate 3-6 this season (all wins towards sub-.500 opponents) when recording eight or fewer steals, because the relaxation of their defense is moderate at most sharp. They need those quickly-rupture buckets to be at their most sharp.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Cameron Krutwig for Loyola-Chicago and Jose Alvarado for Georgia Tech. With ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright out for Georgia Tech, Krutwig will deserve to own a self-discipline day within the paint. He leads the Ramblers in components, rebounds, assists and blocks, and now the Yellow Jackets would now no longer own a colossal probability for slowing him down. Even without their major massive man, even if, the Bees could well be a controversy if Alvarado starts cooking.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Loyola-Chicago
Kerry Miller: Loyola-Chicago
Joel Reuter: Loyola-Chicago
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Tennessee’s Yves PonsRandy Sartin/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Oregon Advise (Midwest Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 4: 30 p.m. ET (TNT)
One-Sentence Synopsis: A conventional 5/12 matchup by which the favourite has been fading for the simpler section of two months while the underdog appears to be hitting its slump on the particular true second.
Tennessee Wins If: The accurate offense reveals up. Tennessee has been all around the plot on offense this season. There was a seven-recreation stretch from Jan. 30 to Feb. 20 by which the Volunteers scored 80, 50, 82, 89, 65, 92 and 55 in succession. And or now no longer it is miles now no longer uncommon for them to drag ice-wintry within the center of a recreation. They scored accurate 20 components within the remaining 17 minutes of their SEC semifinal loss to Alabama—this after storming out to a 15-level lead and taking a see relish the Top 10 team it was reduction in January.
Oregon Advise Wins If: It shoots now no longer now no longer up to 37 p.c from distance. The Beavers are 13-0 when reaching that ticket and 4-12 once they tumble immediate of it. Tennessee’s general defensive efficiency is dazzling, but the Vols attain every now and again flee into some components beyond the arc. Florida accurate shot 10-of-24 (41.7 p.c) towards them this previous weekend.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Yves Pons for Tennessee and Jarod Lucas for Oregon Advise. At this level, we do no longer know if John Fulkerson (facial rupture and concussion) shall be ready to play for Tennessee, that can perchance perchance also drag away Pons as the Vols’ de facto major massive man at accurate 6’6″. Both technique, he has been a serious contributor in most of Tennessee’s key wins. And if the Beavers need threes, Lucas is the fellow. He’s 17-of-38 (44.7 p.c) over his closing six games.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Oregon Advise
Kerry Miller: Tennessee
Joel Reuter: Tennessee
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Oklahoma Advise’s Cade CunninghamBrody Schmidt/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 4 Oklahoma Advise vs. No. 13 Liberty (Midwest Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 6: 25 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: An aesthetic pick to achieve the Closing Four towards what would had been a grand trendier Cinderella team if it had been matched up with any assorted No. 4 seed.
Oklahoma Advise Wins If: It doesn’t web frustrated by the breeze of play. Rushing up Liberty is next to not doubtless, and Oklahoma Advise is a young team that likes to flee. However the Cowboys did drag 4-0 this season towards sluggish-paced Texas Tech and Kansas Advise. As long because it doesn’t web sloppy while attempting to power the action, Oklahoma Advise’s abilities can own to take hang of the day.
Liberty Wins If: The shooting percentages acquire up towards true competitors. Liberty ranks top 10 within the nation in both three-level and two-level share, but there could be just a few serious “performed within the A-Sun” inflation going on here. In two games towards NCAA occasion teams (Purdue and Missouri), the Flames shot a combined 38.2 p.c from the self-discipline and 31.6 p.c from distance while averaging 62.0 components. That wouldn’t cut it towards the Cowboys, but the year-to-date marks of 49.2, 39.1 and 74.9, respectively, per chance would.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Cade Cunningham for Oklahoma Advise and Darius McGhee for Liberty. Cunningham goes to be the No. 1 pick within the upcoming NBA draft, but fans in Stillwater are hoping he can flee this offense for just a few extra weeks first. McGhee ranks third within the nation with 93 made three-pointers, and he is 36-of-67 (53.7 p.c) over his closing seven games. If Liberty is pulling off the upset, it starts with him.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Oklahoma Advise
Kerry Miller: Oklahoma Advise
Joel Reuter: Oklahoma Advise
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North Carolina’s Day’Ron SharpeKeith Srakocic/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Wisconsin (South Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 7: 10 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Or now no longer it is miles a bit weird and wonderful seeing both of these teams seeded here, but hey, have in mind 2000 once they both made the Closing Four as No. 8 seeds?
North Carolina Wins If: It plays by the paint. We’ll touch on an alarming constructing for Wisconsin almost today, but the most sharp cause the Badgers struggled towards the Substantial Ten’s top tier was their inability to sluggish down guys relish Luka Garza, Kofi Cockburn, E.J. Liddell and Hunter Dickinson. If the Tar Heels lean on their strength and accurate relentlessly feed Day’Ron Sharpe, Armando Bacot, Walker Kessler and Garrison Brooks, they must be ready to muscle Wisconsin out of the occasion.
Wisconsin Wins If: It lastly lives up to the metrics. Wisconsin has been a top-15 team on KenPom all season long, but the Badgers are 0-9 since mid-January towards teams that received a single-digit seed. They’ve now no longer now no longer up to been grand closer as of leisurely, losing by either four or five components towards Illinois, Purdue and Iowa (twice) within the previous three weeks. Possibly this turnover-averse offense lastly gets over the fade here.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Day’Ron Sharpe for North Carolina and Brad Davison for Wisconsin. Akin to Zach Collins for that Gonzaga team UNC beat within the 2017 nationwide championship, Sharpe is the massive freshman who comes off the bench and feasts on the offensive glass. And if “going within the heads of North Carolina’s inexperienced and inefficient backcourt” is come the finish of Wisconsin’s to-attain record, there could be no person better for that job than Davison.
Predictions
David Kenyon: North Carolina
Kerry Miller: North Carolina
Joel Reuter: North Carolina
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Houston’s Justin GorhamRon Jenkins/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Cleveland Advise (Midwest Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 7: 15 p.m. ET (truTV)
One-Sentence Synopsis: For barely surviving the madness of the Horizon League occasion, Cleveland Advise’s reward is a war with one in all the most bodily teams within the nation.
Houston Wins If: It simply outworks Cleveland Advise. The Cougars are one in all the correct offensive rebounding teams, while Cleveland Advise is highly wretched on the defensive glass. Houston moreover has one in all the stingiest defenses, and Cleveland Advise generally doesn’t shoot effectively. As long as Houston is aggressive and those season-long trends continue, this shouldn’t be grand of a explain.
Cleveland Advise Wins If: Houston can not take hang of a triple. The Cougars have to shoot three-pointers, and Cleveland Advise permits technique greater than its ultimate portion of appears from the perimeter. But Houston did lose a recreation to Tulsa by which it shot 4-of-21 from deep, and it overlooked 20 threes in both the loss to East Carolina and the shut name towards Memphis on the finish of the customary season. If the Cougars drag something relish 7-of-30 from downtown, that can perchance perchance acquire the Vikings in it.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Justin Gorham for Houston and Torrey Patton for Cleveland Advise. Gorham is Houston’s fiercest power on the glass, averaging 4.0 offensive rebounds per recreation. Patton is the Vikings’ nightly double-double threat who shall be tasked with preserving Gorham in check.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Houston
Kerry Miller: Houston
Joel Reuter: Houston
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Purdue’s Trevion WilliamsMichael Conroy/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 North Texas (South Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 7: 25 p.m. ET (TNT)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Grand relish when it misplaced to Arkansas-Small Rock within the first round five years ago, Purdue’s on the entire worthy frontcourt will partake in an appealing war with a talented and ragged mid-major.
Purdue Wins If: It owns the rebounding war. In effective self-discipline-fair share, North Texas is almost three share components better than Purdue on both offense and defense. The Suggest Inexperienced moreover generally take hang of the turnover war; Purdue on the entire loses it. However the Boilermakers can own to bigger than scheme up for all of that on the glass.
North Texas Wins If: It shuts down one more dominant massive man. Few teams within the nation are geared up to stifle Purdue’s Trevion Williams, but North Texas had a elegant quantity of success towards the likes of Western Kentucky’s Charles Bassey, Loyola-Chicago’s Cameron Krutwig and West Virginia’s Derek Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe. Whereas the Suggest Inexperienced don’t necessarily take hang of if Williams has a spoiled efficiency, this positively turns into extra of a coin flip.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Trevion Williams for Purdue and Zachary Simmons for North Texas. All eyes on the paint for this matchup, as Purdue’s entire offense runs by Williams. If either of these massive males gets into early injurious be troubled, that’s an instantaneous recreation-changer.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Purdue
Kerry Miller: Purdue
Joel Reuter: Purdue
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Clemson’s Aamir SimmsGerry Broome/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 Rutgers (Midwest Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 9: 20 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Buckle up for a rock fight between defensive-minded teams that own gone a combined 17-16 since Recent Year’s Day.
Clemson Wins If: Free throws are a factor. Neither team gets to the charity stripe that on the entire. Clemson averages 13.0 attempts per recreation; Rutgers is at 16.4. But when the Tigers and Scarlet Knights web some whistle-relaxed referees, that’s a large advantage for Clemson. The Tigers shoot 76.5 p.c, while Rutgers is the worst within the occasion self-discipline at 63.2 p.c.
Rutgers Wins If: Myles Johnson and Co. attain their factor on defense. Per KenPom, Rutgers ranks 16th in block share and 26th in pick share. In phrases of allowing those things to happen, Clemson’s offense ranks outside the finish 250 in both categories. With so minute separation between these teams, one massive momentum-keen defensive play could well perchance also scheme the general difference. Even supposing Clemson’s defense is stingy, or now no longer it is grand extra doubtless that Rutgers could be the beneficiary of one of these turning level.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Aamir Simms for Clemson and Johnson for Rutgers. Simms is Mr. All the pieces for Clemson, leading the Tigers in components, rebounds, assists and blocks. Johnson is the 6’11” shot-blocker Simms can own the colossal job of going by all evening.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Rutgers
Kerry Miller: Clemson
Joel Reuter: Rutgers
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San Diego Advise’s Jordan SchakelRoss D. Franklin/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 6 San Diego Advise vs. No. 11 Syracuse (Midwest Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 9: 40 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: In the occasion you abilities staring at possessions where the ball swings around the perimeter sooner than a 3-level shot is taken, it’s good to well relish this recreation.
San Diego Advise Wins If: The threes are falling. In years previous, the conception of picking San Diego Advise’s woeful offense to shoot its technique to victory towards Syracuse’s 2-3 zone defense would had been nauseating. Alternatively, these don’t appear to be the Aztecs of yesteryear. Jordan Schakel leads a perimeter assault making 37.5 p.c of its three-level attempts. They did accurate own an spoiled shooting efficiency (2-of-15) within the MWC championship, even if.
Syracuse Wins If: Its three are falling. Would you suspect that San Diego Advise (or anybody, frankly) permits a higher rate of three-level attempts per self-discipline-fair are trying than Syracuse does? Well, or now no longer it is lawful. 45.4 p.c of opponents’ shots contrivance from the perimeter towards the Aztecs, and Buddy Boeheim has been hot sizzling currently for Syracuse. Additionally, we’ve already considered Syracuse drag from “controversial replace” to “Sweet 16” twice within the previous five tournaments.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Schakel for San Diego Advise and Boeheim for Syracuse. I abominate boiling this recreation the general way down to a glorified three-level contest, but that is what this must be. San Diego Advise’s Nathan Mensah and Joshua Tomaic will moreover play key roles on the offensive glass towards a Syracuse zone that continuously provides up a bunch of second prospects.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Syracuse
Kerry Miller: San Diego Advise
Joel Reuter: San Diego Advise
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West Virginia’s Miles McBrideTony Gutierrez/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 3 West Virginia vs. No. 14 Morehead Advise (Midwest Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 9: 50 p.m. ET (truTV)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Morehead Advise went 0-4 towards the KenPom Top 100 with a median scoring margin of minus-25.5; West Virginia went 8-0 towards the KenPom sub-100 with a median scoring margin of plus-12.5.
West Virginia Wins If: “Press Virginia” comes out to play. Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers are nowhere come the turnover-forcing juggernaut they were when Jevon Carter was running the divulge their own praises. But they are able to serene rack up steals. Even supposing they misplaced both games, they had a combined 29 steals in two games towards Oklahoma Advise earlier this month. And Morehead Advise has the most turnover-inclined offense within the occasion.
Morehead Advise Wins If: Season-ending momentum issues. For a No. 3 seed, West Virginia sputtered to the elevate out line, losing its closing two games and three of the closing four. Focus totally on the games towards occasion teams, and WVU has misplaced eight of its closing 13. But Morehead Advise has won its closing seven games, to boot to 19 of the closing 20. I would now no longer own any concept what occasion history has to claim about that form of momentum, but Morehead Advise will deserve to own reasonably just a few self belief in itself.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Miles McBride for West Virginia and Ta’Lon Cooper for Morehead Advise. This one will web hideous in a flee if WVU’s top on-ball defender can reason problems for Morehead Advise’s top ball-handler. If Cooper can tackle the stress, recreation on.
Predictions
David Kenyon: West Virginia
Kerry Miller: West Virginia
Joel Reuter: West Virginia
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Villanova’s Jermaine SamuelsMatt Slocum/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 12 Winthrop (South Regional)
Crucial components: Friday at 9: 57 p.m. ET (TNT)
One-Sentence Synopsis: The No. 12 over No. 5 upset pick is continuously tempting, but this one is notably anxious to resist.
Villanova Wins If: An acknowledge at level guard drops out of the sky. Collin Gillespie was without problems one in all the most important gamers within the Substantial East sooner than he suffered a torn MCL in early March, and Villanova has been scuffling to decide on things out without him. There hasn’t been a surprising spike in turnovers, but the offense is now no longer the an identical with Chris Arcidiacono running things. And towards an uptempo offense relish Winthrop’s, level guard play shall be significant.
Winthrop Wins If: It goes to outlive the keen uptick in opponent strength. Winthrop went 23-1, but the correct opponent it confronted all season (Furman) would’ve been, at most sharp, the 10th-most sharp team within the Substantial East this year. Even with the Gillespie-sized asterisk on Villanova, here’s the toughest foe the Eagles own confronted, by a long way. Particularly, rebounding shall be key. Winthrop has a median rebounding margin of plus-9.0 per recreation, which ranks among the correct within the nation. Can the Eagles beat Villanova on the boards?
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Jermaine Samuels for Villanova and Chandler Vaudrin for Winthrop. Even supposing the Wildcats own misplaced the two games performed without Gillespie, Samuels now no longer now no longer up to saved them shut with a combined 41 components and 15 rebounds. But speaking of components and rebounds, Vaudrin averages 12.2 of the inclined, 7.2 of the latter and 6.9 assists. A Ja Morant triple-double led Murray Advise to a 12-over-5 upset of a Substantial East team (Marquette) two years ago. Vaudrin (who has three triple-doubles already this season) could well perchance also replicate that feat.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Villanova
Kerry Miller: Winthrop
Joel Reuter: Winthrop
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Colorado’s McKinley Wright IVJohn Locher/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 5 Colorado vs. No. 12 Georgetown (East Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 12: 15 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: After letting one direct thief (Oregon Advise) into the occasion self-discipline, can Colorado acquire this one from reaching the second round?
Colorado Wins If: It owns the turnover war. Colorado has a season moderate turnover margin of plus-2.0 and has dedicated accurate 9.0 turnovers in its closing six games. Georgetown, on the more than just a few hand, struggles in this department. Although we disregard stats from the Hoyas’ 3-8 delivery, they’re serene minus-2.6 over the last 14 games since they’ve changed into things round. Colorado is moreover the simpler shooting and a minute bit better rebounding team, nonetheless it can perchance perchance also seal the take care of turnover margin.
Georgetown Wins If: The defense from Madison Square Garden makes its technique to Indiana. The Hoyas allowed accurate 56.5 components closing week and did in actuality effectively/bought in actuality lucky with their three-level defense, preserving all four opponents to 30.0 p.c or worse. Colorado went accurate 2-4 this season when scoring 64 components or fewer, and both wins were nail-biters.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: McKinley Wright IV for Colorado and Chudier Bile for Georgetown. Wright leads the Buffaloes in components, assists and steals and is the riding power of this team. The Hoyas started profitable when Bile’s feature elevated. It took two months to acquire him, but he has been one of these significant glue guy.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Colorado
Kerry Miller: Georgetown
Joel Reuter: Georgetown
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Florida Advise’s Scottie BarnesGerry Broome/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 4 Florida Advise vs. No. 13 UNC Greensboro (East Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 12: 45 p.m. ET (truTV)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Absurdly deep Seminoles rotation goes towards a mid-major whose most sharp player shoots greater than twice as on the entire as any of his teammates.
Florida Advise Wins If: UNC Greensboro’s shooting percentages acquire to create. As is in most cases the case, the Seminoles block reasonably just a few shots and own one in all the nation’s better interior defenses. This team has had components defending the perimeter, even if. The accurate news for FSU is that, among the 68 teams within the occasion, easiest Texas Southern has a worse three-level share than UNCG’s 30.0 clip.
UNC Greensboro Wins If: It follows Georgia Tech’s blueprint. In the ACC title recreation, Georgia Tech compelled 25 turnovers while committing accurate seven. Even supposing the Yellow Jackets had a tough shooting evening, a turnover margin relish that is almost not doubtless to overcome. UNCG doesn’t web steals as on the entire as Georgia Tech does, but Isaiah Miller ranks sixth within the nation in pick share, and the Spartans own a median turnover margin of plus-3.9. It could in all probability perchance perchance be reasonably a leap to plus-18, but they could also neutralize the Seminoles a bit.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Scottie Barnes for Florida Advise and Miller for UNC Greensboro. Barnes is FSU’s soon-to-be lottery pick who, even at 6’9″, runs the level. Avoiding a turnover catastrophe starts with him. And Miller averages 19.3 components, 6.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.6 steals per recreation. If he doesn’t now no longer now no longer up to achieve his customary factor, or now no longer it is anxious to guage the Spartans pulling off the upset.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Florida Advise
Kerry Miller: Florida Advise
Joel Reuter: Florida Advise
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Kansas’ Marcus GarrettEric Gay/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Jap Washington (West Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 1: 15 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Kansas would be anticipated to take hang of at elephantine strength, but things could well perchance also web sharp, with the Jayhawks reported to be without one starter, per Stadium’s Jeff Goodman.
Kansas Wins If: It takes this matchup extra severely than it did the UTEP recreation. The closing time Kansas misplaced to a team that done the year outside the KenPom Top 100 (Jap Washington is ranked 110th) was at TCU in February 2013. Since then, or now no longer it is had 62 consecutive wins over teams of this (or worse) ilk. However the Jayhawks did darn come lose that recreation to the Miners two weeks ago. And in expose for you to focus on about aged history, they did suffer those reduction-to-reduction first-round upsets to Bucknell and Bradley within the mid-2000s.
Jap Washington Wins If: The offense can translate from the Substantial Sky to the Substantial 12. The Eagles don’t commit many turnovers, they nearly by no technique own shots blocked and they also shoot effectively from all around the court. In February, they averaged 90.1 components in seven games. But tearing up Idaho and Montana Advise doesn’t necessarily point out their technique will work towards Kansas’ top-tier defense. (It positively didn’t work within the 69-52 loss to Oregon.)
Most Crucial Gamers Are: David McCormack for Kansas and Tanner Groves for Jap Washington. McCormack was already Kansas’ most important player, but that’s doubly lawful if Jalen Wilson is unavailable. It could in all probability perchance perchance be extra imperative than ever that the massive man cease out of injurious be troubled. And he’ll be tasked with slowing Groves, who averages 16.4 components and eight.1 rebounds per recreation.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Kansas
Kerry Miller: Kansas
Joel Reuter: Kansas
20 of 32
LSU’s Cameron ThomasTicket Humphrey/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 8 LSU vs. No. 9 St. Bonaventure (East Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 1: 45 p.m. ET (TNT)
One-Sentence Synopsis: An age-feeble clash between an unstoppable power (LSU averages 82.1 components per recreation) and an immovable object (St. Bonaventure permits 60.4 components per recreation).
LSU Wins If: The offense does its factor. LSU has scored now no longer now no longer up to 75 components in all but three games this season, and St. Bonaventure has but to achieve 75 components in 9 tries towards KenPom Top 80 opponents. The Bonnies attain own a colossal D, but the Tigers own lit up heaps of quality defenses over the last few months. If LSU controls the tempo, it doubtless wins the game.
St. Bonaventure Wins If: One in every of its most sharp strengths and LSU’s Achilles’ heel be half of forces. The Bonnies irascible within the finish 10 p.c within the nation in offensive rebounding share, while LSU ranks within the underside 10 p.c in defensive rebounding share. The Bonnies play at a sluggish breeze—in part to take their immediate rotation from running out of gasoline—and they also’ll be relaxed to grind this recreation to a cease by capacity of their second-likelihood alternatives to burn extra clock.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Cameron Thomas for LSU and Osun Osunniyi for St. Bonaventure. Thomas is the most unguardable of LSU’s many potent weapons, destined for the NBA lottery in just a few months. Osunniyi is St. Bonaventure’s top rebounder and a goalie within the paint, averaging 2.9 blocks per recreation.
Predictions
David Kenyon: LSU
Kerry Miller: LSU
Joel Reuter: LSU
21 of 32
Michigan’s Hunter DickinsonCarlos Osorio/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Texas Southern (East Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 3 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: The closing time a SWAC team (Southern) made it into the second round of the NCAA occasion, the Fab Five was in its sophomore season at Michigan.
Michigan Wins If: Texas Southern doesn’t inexplicably flip into the Utah Jazz. Heading into the First Four, the Tigers were shooting 27.6 p.c from three-level range and averaging accurate 4.6 made triples per recreation. In both regards, they ranked among the underside six teams within the entire nation. They did shoot 6-of-14 towards Mount St. Mary’s, nonetheless it would elevate extra relish 16-of-25 to in actuality explain Michigan.
Texas Southern Wins If: Getting blown out early within the year gave it the irrational self belief to shock the realm. Texas Southern continuously plays an onerous nonconference agenda, loaded with avenue games towards major-convention foes. This year, the Tigers confronted four top-100 teams (Oklahoma Advise, Saint Mary’s, Auburn and BYU) and misplaced each recreation by double digits. Will that abilities towards quality competitors in actuality support? Well, it didn’t scheme them grand of a serious-round threat in previous years, but per chance.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Hunter Dickinson for Michigan and Michael Weathers for Texas Southern. Texas Southern does most of its scoring within the paint, but Dickinson keeps most opponents from doing anything within the paint. And Weathers—previously of Miami-Ohio and Oklahoma Advise—has been the Tigers’ brightest essential person all season.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Michigan
Kerry Miller: Michigan
Joel Reuter: Michigan
22 of 32
Creighton’s Marcus ZegarowskiJohn Peterson/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 12 UC Santa Barbara (West Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 3: 30 p.m. ET (truTV)
One-Sentence Synopsis: UCSB has won 18 of its closing 19 games and was going to be a popular sleeper pick no matter its draw.
Creighton Wins If: UCSB’s defense is now no longer as accurate as the stats point out. The Gauchos acquire opponents to 62.8 components per recreation, but they moreover play within the Substantial West, which ranks 30th among the 31 conferences in three-level rate and 22nd in offensive efficiency. Creighton’s offense (26.5 three-level attempts per recreation, with a 36.7 p.c success rate) could well be a shock to UCSB’s system.
UC Santa Barbara Wins If: It turns staunch into a free-throw-shooting contest. Akin to the Friday recreation between Clemson and Rutgers, one in all these teams is lights out from the charity stripe, while the more than just a few has three starters who shoot under 60 p.c. Now not easiest does UCSB convert at a grand higher clip, nonetheless or now no longer it is moreover better at drawing fouls.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Marcus Zegarowski for Creighton and JaQuori McLaughlin for UC Santa Barbara. Zegarowski was an honorable-mention AP All-American closing year, and the prolific combo guard has been taking a see the section again as of leisurely. McLaughlin is every bit the stat-sheet stuffer Zegarowski is, and it must be fun to ogle those two square off.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Creighton
Kerry Miller: UC Santa Barbara
Joel Reuter: Creighton
23 of 32
Alabama’s Herbert JonesTicket Humphrey/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Iona (East Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 4 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: You by no technique know when a 15-over-2 upset could well perchance also rear its hideous head, but here’s the least doubtless of this year’s four candidates.
Alabama Wins If: Nothing too ridiculous happens. Per KenPom, Iona is the worst opponent Alabama has confronted all season. The Gaels are a median shooting team that commits technique too many turnovers. Going up towards one in all the correct defenses within the nation doesn’t sound relish a fun proposition for them. Alternatively, they attain own one in all the simpler (and most reviled) coaches within the game in Rick Pitino, so Alabama would doubtless opt to place this recreation on ice by halftime—which it can perchance perchance also.
Iona Wins If: It mucks this recreation up till the action has no float. Iona commits extra fouls than accurate about any team, and it does a accurate job of drawing contact. The Gaels are trying 20 free throws per recreation and permit almost 25. For an uptempo team relish Alabama that desires to place up rhythm threes as on the entire as conceivable, all those stoppages could well be stifling.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Herbert Jones for Alabama and Isaiah Ross for Iona. Jones is Alabama’s Swiss Navy knife. Even on nights when he is now no longer shooting effectively, he’s generally making a definite impact in assorted locations. Ross had three 30-level performances this season, and this could web sharp if he went off for a fourth time.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Alabama
Kerry Miller: Alabama
Joel Reuter: Alabama
24 of 32
USC’s Evan MobleyJohn Locher/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 6 USC vs. No. 11 Drake (West Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 4: 30 p.m. ET (TNT)
One-Sentence Synopsis: After taking half in within the First Four in both 2011 and 2017, it is going to be up to USC to take one in all this year’s First Four teams from making it into the second round.
USC Wins If: Its interior defense holds support. USC’s two-level self-discipline-fair defense ranks No. 1 among teams that made the occasion, and Drake gets almost 60 p.c of its components from two-level buckets. If Evan Mobley wins that war within the paint, you’ve gotten to factor in USC wins the war. Wichita Advise’s defense held Drake to 13-of-34 (38.2 p.c) shooting staunch by the arc and blocked seven shots; the Shockers accurate could well perchance no longer take hang of buckets of their hang on the more than just a few finish. Appropriate success preserving USC to 52 components.
Drake Wins If: It finds a technique to capitalize on USC’s hideous free-throw shooting. Tajh Eaddy is the most sharp player on the Trojans roster who shoots 70 p.c or better from the charity stripe. Alternatively, Drake has a vivid shallow rotation and can’t afford to be giving freely silly fouls.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Evan Mobley for USC and ShanQuan “Tank” Hemphill for Drake. Mobley could well be going to be the No. 2 pick within the next NBA draft, and he enters the occasion utilizing reduction-to-reduction an identical performances of 26 components, 9 rebounds and five blocks. Hemphill was Drake’s top performer staunch by the 18-0 delivery to the season, but he overlooked the remaining 9 games sooner than the occasion with a foot damage and barely performed towards Wichita Advise. Is commonly a recreation-changer if he’s ready to play a bigger feature in this one.
Predictions
David Kenyon: USC
Kerry Miller: USC
Joel Reuter: USC
25 of 32
Iowa’s Luka GarzaMichael Conroy/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 15 Gigantic Canyon (West Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 6: 25 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: One in every of the correct offenses within the nation towards a team that has misplaced three games to groups outside the KenPom Top 200 within the previous month.
Iowa Wins If: It doesn’t revert to its feeble ways on D. Gigantic Canyon has a solid defense, but Iowa has scored nearly at will towards heaps of better defenses than this. Every team within the Substantial Ten has a top-80 adjusted defensive efficiency. That involves the Hawkeyes, who are up to No. 50 after flipping a transformation in early February. As long as that constructing continues and they also set up now no longer permit the Antelopes (a median offense, at most sharp) to decide on fire, Fran McCaffery’s guys can own to web by to the second round.
Gigantic Canyon Wins If: The 2-bigs lineup throws Iowa for a loop. With 6’10” Alessandro Lever and 7’0″ Asbjorn Midtgaard both within the starting lineup, the ‘Lopes own colossal rebounding and two-level percentages on offense and defense. And four Substantial Ten teams delivery two guys 6’8″ or taller: Indiana (swept Iowa), Michigan (stomped Iowa in easiest meeting), Minnesota (split season sequence with Iowa) and Wisconsin (went 0-3 towards Iowa, but stifled the offense a bit). Gonzaga moreover starts two bigs, and the Zags beat the Hawkeyes seriously with ease.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Luka Garza for Iowa and Asbjorn Midtgaard for Gigantic Canyon. Garza will take hang of the Wood Award. He’s form of a large deal. And Midtgaard averages 14.0 components and 9.9 rebounds and shoots 70.6 p.c from the self-discipline for the ‘Lopes. Wishes to be a fun war within the paint.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Iowa
Kerry Miller: Iowa
Joel Reuter: Iowa
26 of 32
Connecticut’s James BouknightKathy Willens/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 7 Connecticut vs. No. 10 Maryland (East Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 7: 10 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: A sluggish-paced but excessive-efficiency recreation from which the winner shall be a serious threat to upset its technique into the Elite Eight.
Connecticut Wins If: It figures out how to protect Maryland’s five-out offense. The Huskies relish it when teams are trying and rating within the paint towards them, because Isaiah Whaley and Adama Sanogo are continuously ready for a block birthday celebration. But Maryland plays grand extra of a Creighton/Villanova-form recreation, doing reasonably just a few its damage from the perimeter. Those two Substantial East teams went 4-0 towards Connecticut this season, even if all four contests were shut.
Maryland Wins If: R.J. Cole (concussion) can not play for UConn. James Bouknight is awesome, but Cole has been every bit as valuable for the Huskies, averaging 12.3 components and 4.4 assists per recreation. However the junior level guard is questionable for this recreation because he entered the concussion protocol after he hit his head on the ground within the Substantial East semifinal towards Creighton. This must be a shut contest if Cole is a elephantine participant, but massive advantage to Maryland if he’s out.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Bouknight for Connecticut and Donta Scott for Maryland. Ten years after Kemba Walker’s magical flee and seven years after Shabazz Napier carried the Huskies to a nationwide championship as a No. 7 seed, could well perchance also or now no longer or now no longer it is Bouknight’s flip to enter Connecticut lore? And Scott is Maryland’s starting “heart,” even supposing he’s accurate 6’7″ and could well be the correct three-level shooter on the roster. He figures to be a matchup nightmare in this one.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Maryland
Kerry Miller: Connecticut
Joel Reuter: Connecticut
27 of 32
Virginia’s Jay HuffMichael Dwyer/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Ohio (West Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 7: 15 p.m. ET (truTV)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Ohio has averaged 82.3 components while profitable 9 of its closing 10 games, but that can not happen towards Virginia’s defense, true?
Virginia Wins If: Its shots are falling. For almost a decade, there could be been this story that Virginia is a vivid-sluggish-paced team that has elite defense and mediocre shooting. Closing year, that latter section was painfully lawful, but this year’s Cavaliers own their highest effective self-discipline-fair share in KenPom history (since 2002). Or now no longer it is nearly unfair that they own got got three guys 6’8″ or taller who shoot better than 40 p.c from three-level range—Sam Hauser, Trey Murphy III and Jay Huff. If that holds up, they must be ready to web previous Ohio’s mediocre defense.
Ohio Wins If: Jason Preston does to Virginia what he did to Illinois. The junior level guard went for 31 components, eight assists and 6 rebounds with out a turnovers in a shut name at Illinois in November. That was his profession excessive in scoring, but the “nearly a triple-double” fragment of it is miles a nightly routine for Preston. And while Virginia’s defense is serene reasonably accurate, or now no longer it is miles now no longer as colossal as customary, notably along the perimeter. Or now no longer it is reasonable to query now no longer now no longer up to a 20-7-7 evening from Ohio’s essential person.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Huff for Virginia and Preston for Ohio. At 7’1″, Huff has now no longer now no longer up to five inches on all seven of Ohio’s regulars. The Bobcats’ most sharp team strength is their 56.4 p.c shooting staunch by the arc. How that holds up towards Huff doubtlessly decides this recreation. After which Preston is accurate that attain-every little thing essential person that can build the team on his reduction.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Ohio
Kerry Miller: Ohio
Joel Reuter: Ohio
28 of 32
Oklahoma’s Austin ReavesCharlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Missouri (West Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 7: 25 p.m. ET (TNT)
One-Sentence Synopsis: No assorted teams backed into the occasion reasonably relish Oklahoma and Missouri did, and now they war to discover who desires to face Gonzaga on Monday.
Oklahoma Wins If: It comes the general way down to the minute things. Oklahoma doesn’t shoot itself within the foot with turnovers or fouls, but Missouri does at instances. In their loss to Arkansas within the SEC occasion, the Tigers dedicated 21 of the inclined and 25 of the latter. In greater than half of of Oklahoma’s games, it dedicated 15 or fewer of both. The Sooners are moreover the simpler free-throw shooting team if it comes the general way down to that.
Missouri Wins If: It leans on its advantage within the paint. Per KenPom, the lineup Oklahoma has former 42.7 p.c of the time over its closing five games has 6’3″ Elijah Harkless at “strength forward” and 6’9″ Brady Manek at heart—and Manek is grand extra of a stretch 4 than a lawful massive man. If the Tigers accurate feed Jeremiah Tilmon and Kobe Brown down low, they must muscle their technique to victory.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Austin Reaves for Oklahoma and Tilmon for Missouri. Even supposing Oklahoma did somehow knock off Alabama without Reaves, the senior level guard is that this team’s heart and soul, to boot to the fellow it is going to lean on in crunch time. And Tilmon is a power of nature when he desires to be. Missouri’s massive man averaged 19.6 components, 9.0 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in seven games in January.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Oklahoma
Kerry Miller: Missouri
Joel Reuter: Missouri
29 of 32
Gonzaga’s Drew TimmeYoung Kwak/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Norfolk Advise (West Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 9: 20 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: In its easiest previous outing to the NCAA occasion, Norfolk Advise pulled off one in all the most sharp stunners of all time, knocking off No. 2 seed Missouri in 2012.
Gonzaga Wins If: Or now no longer it is ready to play at anything shut to elephantine strength. All due respect to Norfolk Advise, but Gonzaga is true up there with 2014-15 Kentucky on the record of the most sharp teams of the previous two a protracted time. If Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert and Drew Timme are all ready to play for as long as the Zags need them, or now no longer it is anxious to dream up any explain by which Gonzaga doesn’t take hang of.
Norfolk Advise Wins If: A hypnotist makes the Spartans factor in they’re going by Delaware Advise. In one recreation towards DSU, Norfolk Advise shot 13-of-23 from three-level range. In one more, it hit 15-of-32 from downtown. The Spartans had just a few assorted spectacular shooting performances and made 37 p.c of their three-level attempts on the season. A form of games where they simply can not miss could well perchance also now no longer now no longer up to scheme things a bit nerve-wracking for anybody whose bracket is now no longer already busted by Saturday evening.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Drew Timme for Gonzaga and Joe Bryant Jr. for Norfolk Advise. Small frontcourt depth could be the most sharp reason for explain with the Zags for the next month, so Timme is the fundamental guy who desires to cease healthy. And if Norfolk Advise goes to scheme one million three-pointers, Bryant did own two games this season with now no longer now no longer up to 6 triples.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Gonzaga
Kerry Miller: Gonzaga
Joel Reuter: Gonzaga
30 of 32
BYU’s Matt HaarmsYoung Kwak/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 UCLA (East Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 9: 40 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: BYU was overpassed as “that assorted team in Gonzaga’s convention,” but the Cougars are greater than accurate adequate to knock out this historical powerhouse.
BYU Wins If: It shoots relish it did within the first half of of the WCC Championship Game. The Cougars on the entire shoot it effectively, but they were on one more level for the first 20 minutes of their third recreation towards Gonzaga, hitting 9-of-13 from three-level range while scoring 53 components. It wasn’t sustainable, and it wasn’t adequate to beat the correct team within the nation. But when the Cougars can cook relish that for, oh, eight to 10 minutes in this recreation, they must be ready to knock off an opponent that barely made it into the occasion.
UCLA Wins If: Thursday evening was a turning level. Sooner than beating Michigan Advise, UCLA was 0-6 away from dwelling towards NCAA occasion teams. In four of those games, even if, the Bruins led at some level within the remaining 10 minutes. Regardless of the general accidents and roster changes, here’s a accurate team that accurate hadn’t been ready to web over the proverbial fade. Possibly beating the Spartans was the beginning of that.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Matt Haarms for BYU and Johnny Juzang for UCLA. Three months ago, UCLA doubtlessly could well perchance also own neutralized Haarms. Alternatively, with Chris Smith (knee damage) and Jalen Hill (private causes) no longer round, the Cougars’ 7’3″ heart could well perchance also feast within the paint. And while the Bruins serene own five double-digit scorers, Juzang is the one maybe to shoot them to victory. He has build up now no longer now no longer up to 25 components in four of their closing 12 games.
Predictions
David Kenyon: BYU
Kerry Miller: UCLA
Joel Reuter: BYU
31 of 32
Texas’ Matt Coleman IIIAssociated Press
Matchup: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 14 Abilene Christian (East Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 9: 50 p.m. ET (truTV)
One-Sentence Synopsis: One decade after unleashing VCU’s “HAVOC” on the realm, Texas’ Shaka Engaging has to decide on out how to neutralize the most sharp turnover-forcing defense within the nation.
Texas Wins If: It minimizes turnovers. Its year-to-date turnover numbers don’t appear to be inaccurate, but that has been a controversy currently. At some stage within the last five games, the Longhorns averaged 15.8 turnovers dedicated, 8.8 of which were steals. Now, they won all five of those games, and they also’ll doubtless survive this one within the occasion that they easiest flip it over 16 instances. Alternatively, when going by ACU’s swarming D, a 1.5-time multiplier within the sloppiness department must be anticipated.
Abilene Christian Wins If: It gets its customary quota of steals and hits some shots. Forcing turnovers is worthy, nonetheless it issues minute whenever you doubtlessly can now no longer rating on the more than just a few finish—as Abilene Christian learned in its 51-44 loss to Texas Tech in early December. Here is a accurate shooting team, even if. Against D-I opponents, the Wildcats shot 37.7 p.c from three-level range. They’re sitting at 42.8 p.c in that category over their closing 10 games.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Matt Coleman III for Texas and Damien Daniels for Abilene Christian. Texas’ senior level guard is responsible of limiting the turnovers, and Daniels—the 5’7″, 140-pound guard who will at once be a fan favourite among those pulling for the Cinderella—has the highest pick share among ACU’s regulars.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Texas
Kerry Miller: Abilene Christian
Joel Reuter: Texas
32 of 32
Oregon’s Chris DuarteAmanda Loman/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 10 VCU (West Regional)
Crucial components: Saturday at 9: 57 p.m. ET (TNT)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Oregon has won now no longer now no longer up to at least one recreation in each of its closing six trips to the NCAA occasion; VCU is 1-5 in its closing five trips, even if that lone take hang of did contrivance in a 10-over-7 upset towards Oregon Advise.
Oregon Wins If: It handles VCU’s fixed stress. The Rams irascible top-five in both block share and pick share, but they are restricted on offense, averaging 67.1 components and shooting 27.5 p.c from three-level range over their closing eight games. As long as Oregon doesn’t spoon-feed them flee-outs with sloppy play, the Geese must be enticing.
VCU Wins If: Bones Hyland gets reasonably just a few support on offense. VCU can doubtlessly rely on its essential person for now no longer now no longer up to 20 components, but the more than just a few 50-plus had been the season-long quiz ticket. And while Oregon’s defense is now no longer as aggressive as VCU’s, the Geese are moreover effectively above-moderate in both the blocks and steals departments. If this offense can acquire a technique to web to 75 components towards that defense, even if, the Rams can own to take hang of.
Most Crucial Gamers Are: Will Richardson for Oregon and Hyland for VCU. Oregon didn’t delivery hitting its slump till Richardson made his season debut in February, and the ragged level guard will can own to be on his A-recreation towards the Rams. Hyland is the sine qua non for VCU.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Oregon
Kerry Miller: Oregon
Joel Reuter: Oregon
Stats by capacity of Sports actions Reference and KenPom.com unless in any other case essential.
