I become reading this put up
https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2021/09/fossil-fuels-are-lifeless.html#comments
on Charles Stross’ blog, and the comments, and it took place to me that I gape a an identical blueprint of arguments developed every time renewables are discussed. Particularly when brooding about how (and whether) a 21st Century electrical energy gadget may perhaps perhaps well also merely be powered 100% by renewables, over what time duration and whether the overall costs of this would be acceptable (1) they retain cropping up. I own in thoughts them to be fallacies.
I’m now not suggesting that they’re repeatedly injurious faith arguments but they’re I mediate rather clearly now not ethical when one thinks about them. I mediate the onus of proving that they observe in any announce discipline now rests with the person advancing them. Surely, within the event you are going to lead with one amongst the five renewable fallacies below and also you usually are now not doing diverse labor to clarify how they observe than I will abolish that at most attention-grabbing you are ignorant, shading in to whataboutery and sealioning and at worst making injurious faith arguments in cool blood.
So what are these Five Renewable Energy Fallacies? Read on.
Fallacy 1 – Fix It All, Fix it Now or Fix None Of It.
The Fallacy – that in advise to add extra renewables to any piece of grid it’s valuable to resolve all of the capability concerns with attending to 100% renewables.
In advise to add renewables to a announce grid (2) over the subsequent 2-3 years (3) you usually are now not hunting for to show conceal that that you would be in a position to resolve all of the capability concerns with accommodating renewables on the grid. You ethical want to resolve the quick blocker. Other blockers may perhaps perhaps well also also be solved as they start to ranking within the capacity. They may perhaps perhaps merely prove now not to if truth be told be blockers. Blockers are prone to be grid announce – Hawaii is extremely diversified from Switzerland is extremely diversified from Australia.
Some examples.
California has a glut of solar PV for the time being. So great so as that energy prices on a sunny day about lunchtime are turning detrimental i.e. the power situation is paying folk to secure the power off their fingers. No one goes to add extra solar PV to California until right here is sorted out. What are the alternate choices? Somewhat of short term storage, to shift the power from the afternoon to after darkish. You don’t desire to provide the storage gigantic low price, you own low price energy (gape Fallacy 3) and also you usually are now not hunting for to resolve storing the power for weeks or months. All it’s valuable to abolish is suck up ample energy at 2pm and sell it at 2am in advise to turn energy prices clear throughout the sunlight hours. Other alternate choices, elevate the interconnetion (4) both with Texas to the east or the Pacific North West to the North. You can well perhaps gape if there had been some energy intensive processes that may perhaps perhaps well also merely be dawdle within the afternoon but to be correct I mediate the California solar glut may perhaps perhaps well also merely be a short-lived discipline. I would now not form a desalination plant ethical yet. Existing battery alternate choices may perhaps perhaps well also also be built faster than that you would be in a position to form a desalination plant.
The GB Queue – wait on after I become employed to mediate of this stuff there become a discipline including recent wind generators to the UK grid. Many of essentially the most attention-grabbing locations for onshore wind had been within the North of Scotland. A characteristic of the North of Scotland is that handiest a few folk stay there so the electrical energy grid is now not robust (5) and largely designed to pass small portions of energy north from the Central Belt now not tremendous portions of energy south. That become extra than 10 years within the past and the discipline has been largely solved. How? A mix of time, a decade, money spent on constructing bigger cables and I imagine some short-term relaxations of the principles about who paid who if the grid had too great energy on it any given day. Long term alternate choices consist of tremendous subsea cables bypassing the Central Belt to shift excess energy straight away to London or across the North Sea to the Low Worldwide locations.
So two examples of concerns with gentle evident fashions of alternate choices. One solved, one which will seemingly be solved over the arrival couple of years. In both cases, as soon as the concerns are solved extra renewables may perhaps perhaps well also also be added until a brand recent blueprint of concerns is printed (6)
For sure, within the event you resolve at the recent time’s discipline with a cludge or a bodge that looks to be sub-optimal if you are working at or terminate to 100% renewables then that may perhaps perhaps point to costly and / or time ingesting.
Compose I promise that within the event you resolve at the recent time’s concerns you are assured to resolve tomorrow’s concerns and the concerns of the day after too? I abolish now not. However the answer to the discipline of getting extra renewables on the grid at the recent time is to resolve essentially the most up to date concerns at the recent time and tomorrow’s later on.
Compose I promise you that no investor in energy infrastructure will produce the detrimental resolution and prove shedding money? I abolish now not? Diversify your pension portfolio folk.
Fallacy 2 – 100% Lemon or 100% Lime or Bust
The Fallacy – that in advise to ranking to 100% renewables that you would be in a position to handiest employ 100% of one make of renewables.
That is a transferring point of interest fallacy. Oh, take a examine your complete concerns over right here. Then oh, take a examine your complete concerns over there. It fails to recognise that the concerns are connected (very literally) and that aspects of one discipline are a doable intention to aspects of the diversified discipline.
Various renewables technologies own diversified strengths and weaknesses. These are gentle evident and smartly understood by the industry (7). Solar PV is more cost effective, works throughout the day when most folk want energy, doesn’t work at night. Onshore wind is more cost effective than offshore wind but now not as legit. Geothermal is costly but fixed. Biomass is despatchable (8) but requires stuff to burn and causes smoke. Hydro requires valuable valleys with a entire bunch water. In an identical intention the diverse kinds of storage or transport or energy carrier own their very beget strengths and weaknesses (9)
And we employ diversified thermal technologies now, coal, two kinds of gas plant, oil, both in peaker vegetation or generators or vehicles and nuclear, alongside some already deployed renewables. We employ diversified technologies for transporting items and folk. Various technologies for spreading news.
But you ranking diverse comments along the traces, “but within the event you are going to make employ of solar PV that you must timeshift *allthe power you want for nighttime, so the storage cost are big! Bigly battery costs.” I don’t because I’m now not going to investigate cross-check and employ nothing but solar PV and lithium-ion batteries. I will add some wind, I will repurpose an existing hydro intention to provide in a single day energy now not high energy. I could perhaps perhaps well also merely even install some recent cables to the subsequent town over.
I don’t desire to provide my grid out of one technology or one make of storage. Handiest a moron would strive. Handiest a moron would counsel doing so. in sunny conditions with a entire bunch desolate tract I will employ a entire bunch solar PV. but now not nothing but solar PV. The establish the seabed is shallow and windy a entire bunch offshore wind. Any place reach a volcano I’d take a examine geothermal (10). Will I employ batteries? Presumably, is dependent how great hydro I’ve already got on my grid. And even I will employ solar thermal programs to shift energy in to the early night. Or can I lift some energy from a neighbouring grid? Or a grid fair a tiny bit additional away? (11) . Compose I genuinely own a glut of solar PV on my grid most days? What can I employ that for? An aluminium smelter, a desalination plant, hydrogen for my buses?
The longer term will seemingly be a combine of diversified blends of renewables, storage and transfer technology pushed by local conditions with the closing combine derived at thru a combination of planning, discovery and the of a entire bunch of valid existence trials to figure out local optimum alternate choices. The islands of Hawaii, Sizable Britain and Australia can own very diversified outcomes.
Fallacy 3 – Will No One Procure the Systems Be conscious
The Fallacy – that if one ingredient of a gadget is extremely costly then the total gadget will seemingly be very costly
The number to maintain an opinion on is the typical cost of offering a unit of energy when it’s miles wanted.
Some kinds of renewable energy at some cases are very, very low price. Solar PV in ethical conditions may perhaps perhaps well also also be had for $20 / mwh. This compares gentle great with essentially the most up to date UK wholesale energy prices of £83 ($115) up from £53 ($73) in February. $20 / mwh compares gentle smartly with the starting designate of day one amongst operation of Hinckley Level C of £92 /mwh ($127). If I am in California I don’t desire to timeshift 100% of the power I invent to 5am. I undoubtedly don’t desire to timeshift 100% of the power I invent from lunchtime in July to lifeless night in March. Day to night query – perhaps a ratio of 4:1. So in California I could perhaps perhaps well form 5 fashions of solar PV for $20 5 = $100, employ about $500 transferring 1 unit of electrical energy from day to night and mute be more cost effective than Hinckley Level C.
The discipline is more difficult in Europe for sure. Our terminate by sunny areas are in North Africa and we may perhaps perhaps well also merely own triggered some tension there by invading diverse cases, placing in and de-placing in militia dictatorships to suit ourselves, colonising them after which blowing up their co-religionists on a day to day foundation for the closing 20 years. (12) But now we own gentle ethical wind sources especially offshore wind (13), we set aside now not own zero ethical solar PV (at most up to date prices). It’s now not admire we’re now not used to being reliant on unreliable companions for energy. Neither is Europe entitled to having moderately low price energy. We in Europe may perhaps perhaps well also merely want to ranking used to the foundation that the US, Africa and Australia ranking the least costly energy deal within the 21st Century, ethical admire we did within the 18th Century.
Some system of the sphere may perhaps perhaps well pass to 100% renewables at designate as ethical as or better than they’re currently paying extra or less at the recent time. About a of us will want to wait a chunk longer whereas some costs approach down and a few concerns ranking solved. Some system of the sphere can own more cost effective energy than diversified system. Got a desolate tract reach the equator? Then you definately going to own abundant, low price energy and your complete advantages that approach from that. When you don’t then you are a competitive predicament and sooner or later may perhaps perhaps well also merely mute quiz to gape energy intensive economic activity pass a ways from you.
However the key number is whether or now not the typical cost of a unit of renewable electrical energy within the sphere is more cost effective than the typical cost of the different technologies.
Fallacy 4 – Nothing Less Than Perfection, The general Time
The Fallacy – that a 100% renewables gadget has to purpose 100% perfectly in 100% of scenarios or else it received’t be acceptable.
The most up to date energy gadget doesn’t purpose 100% perfectly in 100% of scenarios. We now own ethical got used to the solutions it’s now not very most attention-grabbing and realized to salvage them or work around or pay additional for them.
Burning coal is rather terrible (14), terrible within the event you breath the fumes, terrible within the event you mine it. Petrol vehicles are noisy and polluting. Gasoline offers are managed by from time to time hostile international powers and the value goes up and down extra ceaselessly than an England sports fan’s hopes and wishes. We now own got fought a different of wars over oil and up to now none over sunshine. The UK’s most up to date nuclear reactor snappily has some prolonged-term concerns with metallic fatigue. It can well own to be shut down within the future, perhaps by the regulator, perhaps without warning. Prices of electrical energy will plug up sharply. Our thermal energy stations are tremendous, so the grid is prone to a small different of cascade journeys leading to a authorized dim out, a rare discipline but one for which a decent “dim open” energy situation will get paid additional to relieve mitigate. This additional cost is now not itemised on our electrical energy bill. The most up to date gadget is now not very most attention-grabbing. It’s now not the case that no person within the UK has suffered a dim out, had to queue for petrol or considered the mangled physique of a beloved son returned in a physique fetch from a miles away oil rich country or dug out of a pit crumple.
Nor may perhaps perhaps well also merely mute we query that it’s miles. Perfection costs money and shifts concerns from interior one gadget boundary to yet every other gadget. (15).
Engaging to a 100% renewables energy gadget will involve us transferring from one blueprint of concerns to yet every other. In doing so we’ll produce trades between diversified concerns and between solving concerns and spending money. Economics tells us that if the combo of advantages, concerns and money for a renewable gadget is extra healthy than the seemingly picks as judged by the combination market participant this will seemingly happen without policy wait on.
I mediate the renewable industry will prove better and more cost effective than essentially the most up to date gadget but after I’m detrimental regarding the renewables industry being ethical at optimising that bundle of advantages, concerns and fees then the nuclear industry can own a plug. Or the actual industries most affected prove with a localised discipline that they want to resolve in some diversified capacity (16) or shall we technique to a resolution that we’re gay to provide the policy wait on wanted to ranking folk to shift (17). However the fact is that every body programs are a compromise between between costs, concerns and advantages. Requiring renewables to be 100% very most attention-grabbing is to maintain it a valuable greater current than essentially the most up to date gadget is held to.
Fallacy 5 – Oh However the Prices, the Prices, (20)
The Fallacy – that renewables costs usually are now not falling.
There are diverse comments that clutch that costs are static, that renewables prices at the recent time may perhaps perhaps be the renewables prices of the arrival decades. Worse there are some folk that take care of quoting you costs from a decade or two within the past. These costs are detrimental. Current costs are lower than costs within the previous. Projects currently being determined on clutch costs lower than the direct.
The falling costs are pushed by 5 things.
1) Studying curve outcomes
2) economies of scale
3) specialisation
4) lowered financial risk
5) attention-grabbing recent technologies
Affirm 5 is the smallest and least valuable element. Most technology that we would favor to reach 100% renewables energy already exists – it’s ethical a case of making it more cost effective. More importantly, the first three components are continual. There’s now not one of these thing as a evidence that they’re about to pause.
1) Studying curve outcomes, things ranking more cost effective to abolish as you repeat doing them because you learn from every iteration. Conventionally they’re measured as % fall in cost per doubling of overall output. A 10% studying curve perform capacity that the 101st unit costs 90% of the 1st unit, the 200th unit costs 90% of the 101st unit and the 400th unit costs 90% of the 200th unit or 73% of the value of the 1st unit. Studying curve outcomes for solar PV and battery technology had been persistently at 15% of greater, for a protracted time. At this time solar PV offers about 3% of world electrical energy. It’s miles currently more cost effective in ethical areas than the gas that goes in a gas turbine. By the purpose it has doubled in quantity and doubled again this will seemingly be supplying about 10% of an expanded electrical energy query. This may perhaps perhaps merely happen over the subsequent ten years. The designate of solar PV will fall by about 30% from at the recent time’s prices.
When you suppose studying curve outcomes are going to pause soon the onus is on you to recent how that alternate goes to happen and why. It’s miles a must want to recent why tomorrow goes to be radically diversified from the closing 40 years.
2) Economies of scale – working along aspect the training curve perform are scale economies. Doing a entire bunch a element in a gigantic manufacturing facility is more cost effective than doing a few of a element in a small manufacturing facility. Making a ship with twice the storage capability because the previous ship doesn’t cost twice as great. About a of right here is easy geometry. A wind turbine that has twice the diameter has extra than twice the voice.
Again, within the event you suppose that scale economies don’t observe to this industry or received’t proceed to examine to this industry then the onus is on you to provide your case. The info are in opposition to you.
3) Specialisation – a Third element utilizing the costs of renewables down is that extra and better consultants are turning into readily accessible because the size and profitability of the industry improves. Offshore wind used to own borrow oil and gas vessels to install turbine towers. The offshore wind industry is now tremendous ample to warrant its beget snappily of specialist ships (18). Batteries designed for storing renewable energy for weeks now not hours are now value producing in bulk. Industrial contracts for the sale of renewable energy exist. They may perhaps perhaps also be copied.
4) financial risk within the industry is falling as investors gape that overall costs are falling and operators can construct and dawdle renewables projects and pay their debt. That is pushed by reliability and improved capability components. This has a virtuous circle perform. As hobby rates on renewables fall the debt service falls, making it simpler for projects to pay their lenders, making the mortgage less volatile. As hobby rates fall the hobby paid throughout the constructing of the challenge (19) falls, making the total element more cost effective to form.
5) technology enhancements are by a ways the least valuable element. Very tiny that’s recent needs to be invented. Obvious, it can well be gigantic if perovskite solar PV got the conversion rate of solar PV from 20-30% to 40-50% but I don’t desire that to provide solar PV more cost effective after I’ve got big factories pumping out solar panels by the tens of hundreds. Better offers for wind turbine blades would be gigantic if it intended I could perhaps perhaps well double the rotor length without caring about wingtip rotation speeds, but I don’t desire them if it now costs me half as great to rent an installation vessel as it used to install the kits within the North Sea.
To voice this a Third time, the value of renewables has demonstrably fallen over a prolonged time duration for causes that are baked in to the process, smartly noticed and smartly understood from diversified industries which own gotten more cost effective and better over time. If your dwelling is that right here is now not going to proceed for the foreseeable future than the onus is on you to recent why.
As a closing concluding notify I would direct that the five fallacies, or their negation are linked. If I genuinely own a discipline getting extra renewables on to my grid (Fallacy 1) then a solution may perhaps perhaps well also merely be to take care of up for the costs of a technique to approach wait on down (Fallacy 5). If I genuinely own some systemic concerns then perhaps the answer lies in transferring the technologies I employ a chunk to counter-act a weak point with my most up to date blueprint up with a strength from yet every other technology. Blended programs veritably are usually resilient than monocultures. Treating these fallacies as within the event that they had been honest of every diversified is, itself, a make of fallacy.
Footnotes.
(1) I’m tempted to snark “acceptable when compared to roasting the planet so badly that billions of folk die and the the relaxation of us stay within the iron age”, but I concede that one may perhaps perhaps well technically replace fossil fuels with nuclear energy. it can well ethical be extra costly, extra terrible and slower – so doubtlessly handiest a few billion lifeless.
(2) of which there are doubtlessly many hundreds within the sphere
(3) usually known as renewables penetration
(4) literally gigantic energy cables with substations and transformers linking one grid or piece of a grid with yet every other.
(5) small energy cables, small substations, lower voltages
(6) and energy grids are very very heavily regulated with strict permitting conditions. You can well perhaps also’t ethical form a windfarm and depart it in. It’s miles a must want to leer permission from diverse authorities including the grid operator – these items are planned 5-10 years in reach and discipline to a entire bunch prognosis sooner than any individual indicators a lift advise advise for one thing else. So after I voice printed, I imply printed in theory as piece of the planning process.
(7) you abolish now not eliminate prizes for pointing out that solar PV doesn’t work at night – you abolish now not look astute, you look admire a tool. We all know this about solar PV, all people is conscious of what the alternate choices are, and within the event you are going to own an interior baseball conversation that you must own watched Moneyball.
(8) In a position to be switched on and off at will.
(9) and designate noting that essentially the most developed make of battery, lithium-ion has up to now largely been designed for coming into into laptops and cellphones which own diversified employ-cases than industrial energy capabilities.
(10) even when you abolish now not may perhaps perhaps well also merely mute be reach true magma to provide geothermal energy technology work. There are diverse locations with hot rocks.
(11) line losses from HVDC cables are about 3% per 1,000 kilometers. It’s about 8,000 kilometers from Riyadh to Marrakesh – so you are having a take a examine about 25% losses to shift energy from one crash of the Sahara (thru Europe within the event you own an extended cable) to the diversified. Energy that cost you $20 per megawatthour in Riyadh would cost you $25 in Marrakesh. San Diego to New York is about 4,000 kilometers. 10-15% losses for crossing North America. It’s miles 17, 000 kilometers from Sydney to London, so losses of about half. That energy you sold in Darwin for US$20 goes to cost US$40 plus the value of the cables when it will get to London.
(12) the discipline right here is now not technological, it’s political – we do now not have confidence North African states to be legit energy companions. It’s moreover militia. Europeans had been dicks to desolate tract-dwellers to the south of us who can beat us in a fight. The United States determined to be dicks to desolate tract-dwellers who had been less ethical at combating.
(13) which the ethical folk of Morocco may perhaps perhaps well admire to lift at night time.
(14) ignoring within the meanwhile local climate alternate.
(15) e.g. the discipline of security of supply for gas which now we own solved by bombing Iraq and pretending the Russians usually are now not at battle with us.
(16) as an illustration an aluminium smelter may perhaps perhaps well secure good thing about detrimental energy prices on sunny windy days by running a double shift at short watch and having to pay staff a top rate for having their offshift disrupted.
(17) policy wait on right here capacity things admire subsidies, tax breaks, principles requiring renewables, principles prohibiting air pollution.
(18) by specialist I imply, better, more cost effective, extra legit and faster folk or equipment or recordsdata
(19) capitalised hobby, piece of the form costs
(20) the costs, the costs are falling, from glen to glen and down the mountainside and I will seemingly be low price in sunshine or in shadow
