gape Packers vs. Rams: Originate time, TV channel, are living movement, win, key matchups in NFC divisional round

The divisional round of the playoffs is upon us. In a single in every of essentially the most animated matchups of the weekend from a pure superstar-energy standpoint, the extinguish-seeded Green Bay Packers welcome the No. 6 seed Los Angeles Rams to Lambeau Self-discipline to kick off Saturday’s motion. Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Jaire Alexander, Za’Darius Smith, Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and more will all be on the connected self-discipline. This would perchance well unbiased calm be fun. 

Let’s crash down the matchup. 

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Date: Saturday, Jan. 16 | Time: 4: 35 p.m. ET

Predicament: Lambeau Self-discipline (Green Bay, Wisconsin)

TV: Fox | Movement: fuboTV (Strive without spending a dime)

Note:  CBS Sports App

When the Rams agree with the ball

The terms of engagement on this facet of the ball are somewhat sure: The Rams are attempting to bolt, and the Packers largely fight to dwell the bolt. LA done the season ranked fourth in bolt offense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, to boot to seventh in Adjusted Line Yards. Green Bay truly checked in a somewhat solid 18th in bolt defense DVOA, however a more relating to 23rd in Adjusted Line Yards, indicating that they more assuredly than no longer lost the battle within the trenches. 

So, the Packers are seemingly to be treated to a heavy dose of Cam Akers, who has fully taken over as the Rams’ lead attend real by the last plenty of weeks. After taking part in scarcely by the first 12 weeks of the season — his 24 snaps and 33 p.c snap portion in Week 1 every represented excessive-water marks till Week 13, and he conducted apt 111 snaps throughout that span — Akers has largely boxed Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson (now injured) out of the backfield pecking divulge. He’s conducted no longer no longer as much as 61 p.c of the snaps in every of the last five video games, speeding 114 times for 471 yards and two touchdowns.

In Green Bay’s three losses this season, the Packers surrendered 158, 173, and 140 speeding yards, to opponents who averaged 4.5, 5.1, and 3.8 yards per strive. The Colts staged a 2d-half comeback by running their attain into self-discipline targets and tightening up on defense. Tampa’s early lead came on a win-six and one other interception returned to the two-yard line, so it was most efficient Minnesota that if truth be told came out and apt ran the ball lawful down Green Bay’s throat from the jump. But even the Vikings did no longer expend the lead for lawful till the third quarter, and did no longer save issues away till Dalvin Cook dinner took a display pass 50 yards to the dwelling. 

With out a doubt, the Packers know the Rams are attempting to bolt the ball. And the Rams know the Packers know they are attempting to bolt the ball. Which is why it be a lawful thing their total passing game is ready marrying play motion to their accepted bolt ideas. With Jared Goff’s thumb damage, it goes to seemingly be a lawful thought to net him fleet strikes on screens to the perimeter, to boot to half-self-discipline reads on bootlegs, where he can apt dump it off to at least one in every of his targets and let them net a play with the ball of their hands. 

Things net more sophisticated for the LA passing game with Cooper Kupp’s knee damage, striking more stress on Robert Woods (who seems seemingly to leer hundreds of Jaire Alexander, who would possibly well perchance be getting lots more consideration this week if he weren’t taking part in in opposition to Jalen Ramsey’s group), Josh Reynolds, and Van Jefferson. LA’s excellent passing game matchups are seemingly their tight ends (Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett) in opposition to the Packers’ linebackers and safeties, and it would no longer be dazzling to leer heaps of 12 personnel (one attend, two tight ends) appears to be like from the Rams, hoping to net heavier appears to be like from the Green Bay defense and then hit the tight ends on crossers out of play motion. 

When the Packers agree with the ball

The marquee matchup right here, obviously, is Davante Adams vs. Jalen Ramsey. Adams solidified himself as one thing savor the consensus excellent wide receiver in football this season, racking up 115 catches for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns in only 14 video games. (And it was truly 13.5 video games, as he exited midway by the Packers’ Week 2 contest.) He and Aaron Rodgers portion a mind-meld that is unmatched by any a form of quarterback-receiver combination within the league within the imply time, and additionally they misfortune defenses to duvet every scamper of the self-discipline. 

Fortunate for the Rams, they’ve a cornerback who’s as much as the misfortune. Ramsey shadowed a person receiver in 10 of the 17 video games the group has conducted to this point this season, per NFL.com tracking, and he has been … incredible in these video games, as probabilities are you’ll perchance well glimpse within the table below. 

(Designate: The reception, yardage, and landing totals for these video games encompass ONLY targets where the receiver was lined by Ramsey, so that they’ll unbiased no longer yarn for 100 p.c of the player’s manufacturing in that given game.) 

The most sharp thing relating to the Adams-Ramsey battle is that it be extremely no longer going to be won at the defend point. As a substitute, it be all relating to the originate. Adams was given less cushion at the road of scrimmage than nearly any receiver within the league this season, per NFL.com’s Next Gen Stats. Defenders had been a median of 5.0 yards off the ball at the snap when defending Adams, the sixth-tightest cushion amongst the 132 receivers and tight ends that had been centered no longer no longer as much as 43 times. And yet Adams created a median of 3.3 yards of separation per purpose, in step with the connected tracking, which blueprint he did better than nearly anybody shaking his defender. (Adams was one in every of most efficient eight gamers who saw the differential between their cushion and separation nearby 2 yards or less.) 

So, if there is anybody who can shake Ramsey’s in-your-jersey protection, it be seemingly Adams. And although he cannot, he and Rodgers agree with proven themselves more than able to navigating tight dwelling windows, in particular to the sides of the formation, where they are the most dominant duo within the league. Lining Adams up out wide would possibly well seemingly be a better strategy than transferring him into the slot; Ramsey is seemingly to comply with him internal anyway, and the Rams savor as soon as they are able to line him up closer to the formation so he can stick his nostril in and net plays. Maintaining Adams on the perimeter eliminates that facet of Ramsey’s game. 

The 2d most attention-grabbing battle right here is Packers head coach and play-caller Matt LaFleur in opposition to Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. The Rams play more two-excessive security appears to be like pre-snap than any group within the league, and additionally they nearly repeatedly employ a delicate box. Why? On yarn of Staley believes the principle object of his defense would possibly well unbiased calm be to expend away deep passes, and he is apt magnificent animated opponents to bolt the ball. The Rams done the season ranked third within the NFL in speeding defense DVOA despite lining up with six or fewer gamers within the box on 67.6 p.c of their snaps — a payment a long way elevated than the 45.7 p.c league moderate, per Pro Football Focal point and Tru Media. 

Will LaFleur expend Staley up on his dare and expend a peek at to bolt the ball more assuredly than is advantageous? The Packers of last Three hundred and sixty five days no doubt would agree with done so. (It be worth noting that both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams mercurial met a heavy box that contains eight-plus defenders most efficient 19 p.c of their carries this season, per Next Gen Stats.) This season’s group was a bit more pass-oriented than it was a Three hundred and sixty five days within the past, though, attributable to of Rodgers rising more happy within the offense. The Packers will have to secure recommendations to involve the backs and tight extinguish Robert Tonyan within the passing game as effectively, to agree with a agree with a study to make essentially the most of LA’s linebackers in protection. 

With out a doubt, no longer principal of this issues if they cannot take care of Aaron Donald. The star defensive lineman is coping with a painful rib damage sustained in last week’s victory over Seattle, however he says he goes to play. And if he plays, he will be hassle to manage with. That’s apt what he does. Green Bay has a lawful offensive line, however its most precise member (David Bakhtiari) was lost for the season to a torn ACL last month. The internal of the O-line remains intact, though, which is arguably more critical in opposition to a player savor Donald, who lines up internal. With out a doubt, Donald is no longer essentially the most efficient fear to manage with. Michael Brockers is a power in his be pleased lawful, Morgan Fox had his excellent season yet, and Leonard Floyd and Samson Ebukam can cruise around the threshold. No longer to mention Sebastian Joseph-Day, who’s a dominant player within the bolt game. 

Prediction: Packers 24, Rams 20