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Hundreds of Seattle residents who had flu-like indicators in early 2020 possible gotten smaller the coronavirus, according to a new survey revealed in EClinicalMedicine, an on-line delivery entry journal for The Lancet.
The early unfold of COVID-19 in Seattle change into more huge than first reported, the survey authors wrote, with an estimated 6,500 undetected cases of COVID-19 between Feb. 24 and March 9.
The learn team analyzed files from recent stories in Seattle and Wuhan, China, that re-tested samples from patients who belief that they had the flu. Then the team estimated the ratio of COVID-19 to influenza infections.
In Wuhan, as an example, there were 4 coronavirus positives and 7 flu positives out of 26 patients who went to two hospitals for a flu-like illness between Dec. 30 and Jan. 12. In Seattle, there were 25 coronavirus positives and 442 influenza positives out of two,054 adults and 299 younger those who reported respiratory ailments earlier than March 9, when the metropolis imposed lockdown restrictions.
In Seattle, that methodology there change into 1 COVID-19 case for every 7 flu cases amongst adults and 1 COVID-19 cases for every 9 flu cases amongst kids. In Wuhan, that methodology 2 COVID-19 cases for every 3 flu cases.
The researchers expected to come by undetected COVID-19 cases early within the pandemic, but the ratios had been surprisingly excessive, they wrote. In Seattle, better than 2,200 younger folks and bigger than 4,300 adults had been possible infected between Feb. 24 and March 9, they estimated.=
On the time of every metropolis’s lockdown, Wuhan had reported 422 cases, and Seattle had confirmed 245 cases. Wuhan would possibly have had 10,000 undetected cases earlier than its Jan. 23 lockdown, they estimated.
“The unfold of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Seattle change into for more huge than within the open reported,” the survey authors wrote. “The virus possible unfold for months in Wuhan earlier than the lockdown.”
SOURCE:
EClinicalMedicine, “The use of the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic unfold in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US.”
