2020 NFL playoff image: Packers or Saints in scamper for NFC’s No. 1 seed?

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Heading into Week 15, two NFC groups fill clinched a playoff berth: The Green Bay Packers and the Unique Orleans Saints, each of whom own a 10-3 chronicle. So, who’s in basically the most convenient arena to proper the convention’s one and simplest postseason bye? Effectively …

Sooner than Week 14, the Saints’ potentialities of incomes the NFC’s No. 1 seed stood at 53.7 percent. However after a hideous loss to the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles, that percentage plummeted in my playoff projection model to 30.1 percent. Now, the Packers are in the motive force’s seat at 59.9 percent, thanks to their head-to-head tiebreaker hold at Unique Orleans assist in Week 3. And the Pack fill a more manageable closing agenda:

As a result, my model at the second forecasts the Packers to hold 12 video games, while the Saints’ quantity sits at 11.8.

So, that’s where we stand appropriate now. The two 9-4 groups from the NFC West peaceable fill an open air shot at the No. 1 seed — the Seahawks fill a 4.8 percent likelihood, while the Rams’ odds take a seat at 4.5 — but 90 percent of simulations spit out the Packers or Saints as prime canines. So, what also can separate these groups down the home stretch? Listed below are four key elements:

1) The LaFleur-Rodgers marriage is stronger than ever

Be wakeful all these questions before closing season about how first-time head coach Matt LaFleur would net along with supremely decorated quarterback, Aaron Rodgers? Would Rodgers fill ample freedom to operate on this offense? What about “the audible thing”? Effectively, in Year 1 beneath LaFleur, the Packers went 13-3 and reached the NFC title recreation. In Year 2, Green Bay has clinched its second consecutive NFC North title, and Rodgers is playing one in all the best seasons of his profession.

So, is it the 41-300 and sixty five days-passe coach’s plan or the 37-300 and sixty five days-passe quarterback’s transcendent skill?

Both! Rodgers has old play-action more this season than in each of the old four. With a 28.2 percent play-action fee, he ranks ninth in the NFL. Closing season, he utilized play-action at the 16th-highest fee (24 percent) after ranking no elevated than 26th in the three seasons prior. So, clearly LaFleur’s architecture is taking. However at the equal time, Rodgers’ output has been ridiculous, which is to the quarterback’s credit, as properly. Rodgers is ending 71.9 percent of his play-action passes, with a whopping 134.6 passer rating and a gleaming 16:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. And by the methodology, these 16 play-action touchdown passes are already basically the most by any player in a season since Subsequent Gen Stats began tracking this in 2016.

And since it be connected and issues, Davante Adams has lined up in the slot more this season (24.5 percent of snaps) than in any of the four prior campaigns. The result? A prolific rob fee of 82.6 percent, with 38 grabs for 365 yards and an NFL-handiest seven touchdowns from the slot.

So, per chance the arithmetic here is … LaFleur’s architecture + elite Rodgers + elite Adams = first-round bye.

2) Can the Saints re-put their defensive efficiency in opposition to the scamper?

Earlier than closing Sunday, the Saints had been yielding correct 4.0 yards per flee when the usage of a delicate-weight field (six or fewer defenders in the field) — that became the second-handiest fee in the NFL. Over that span, in Weeks 1 thru 13, the Saints faced about 10 speeding makes an strive per recreation in a delicate-weight field and simplest gave up two total touchdowns in these scenarios. However in Week 14, Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders and the Eagles gave Unique Orleans suits on this space. On 20 rushes in opposition to gentle boxes, Philly racked up 213 yards (10.7 a pop) and a touchdown.

With Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs coming to town on Sunday, Unique Orleans’ defense clearly faces a frightening narrate of affairs. And given Kansas Metropolis’s arena-stretching aerial acrobatics, the Saints will want to robotically operate in gentle boxes. However it indubitably’s unlikely Unique Orleans will allow gentle-field rushes to be so spectacularly environment friendly — or else the Saints fill severe issues.

3) Green Bay’s strength is moreover its Achilles’ heel

The Packers are tied (with the Titans) for fewest turnovers in the NFL this season with 9. Seven of these giveaways fill come in their three losses, that methodology simplest two fill come in their 10 wins. And, if reality be told, these two got here in a surprisingly tight hold over the hapless Jaguars.

So, in most cases, when the Packers hold care of the soccer, they hold. How refined a task will this be over the following three weeks? Effectively, Carolina and Tennessee are at the second tied for 13th with 18 takeaways apiece, while Chicago’s tied for 24th with 14.

4) Unique Orleans’ quarterback narrate of affairs remains fluid

NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported on Tuesday that except Drew Brees (ribs/lung) is “the total methodology assist,” Taysom Hill will likely net one other starting up Sunday vs. Kansas Metropolis. NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport echoed this sentiment on Wednesday: “There might be a likelihood we stare Drew Brees assist, but no longer a huge one.”

So, how does the Chiefs’ defense stack up in opposition to Hill, a twin-possibility QB who’s rushed for 209 yards and four touchdowns in his four begins? Effectively, the Chiefs fill allowed 268 speeding yards to quarterbacks this season, 10th-most in the NFL. However — and this is an infinite contextual cloak — Lamar Jackson accounted for 83 of these yards in a single recreation assist in Week 3.

The Saints also can peaceable have the opportunity to present protection to the quarterback — whether it be Hill, Brees or each — in the closing three weeks of the conventional season. The Chiefs, Vikings and Panthers all heinous 20th or worse in sack manufacturing.