NFL Week 1 odds and picks: Packers shock Vikings in Minnesota, Saints beat Tom Brady and Buccaneers
Ladies folks and gentlemen, welcome to season eight of my NFL picks.
If you’re finding out this handsome now, that’s a handsome snort, on fable of it manner that you just can bear efficiently survived every part that 2020 has thrown at us to this point. I’m now not clear about you, but I knew we had been in ache when the damage hornets confirmed up, and the worst share is that it’s most efficient a topic of time before the damage hamsters display veil up, on fable of as all of us know, they always invade after the hornets.
The indisputable reality that I survived the previous 5 months is a minor miracle. I did now not deem I was as soon as going to continue to exist previous March, and that is the reason mainly on fable of I went 5 straight weeks with out bathroom paper at my condo. I impact now not must crawl into too many small print about how I made it through that rough interval, but I will dispute that loo paper hoarding needs to be a crime. I now procure PTSD on every occasion I stroll within the bathroom.
The handsome news in all of right here’s that I did now not seize coronavirus, but on the assorted hand, I have not slept since April, on fable of I’ve been quarantined with a child.
My accomplice and I had the toddler encourage in April, and since you’re perchance wondering, no, we did now not have interaction her on Wayfair, but we did have interaction a great sofa from them.
If I’ve learned one snort about babies over the previous 5 months, it’s that they impact now not appear to care do that you just must blame issues on them, which I’m most efficient declaring on fable of I crawl to be blaming all my overlooked picks on the toddler this one year.
We’re giving freely a entire bunch free money this season and all it would perchance well be needed to present is procure your most efficient 5 games to procure within the action. Enter Parlay Procure’em now to your likelihood to have interaction the $20,000 assured season prize and $5,000 to the Week 1 winner. Terms note.
Anyway, before we procure to the picks, I truly bear handsome news for the 5 of you who emailed in and demanded to CBS that I produce extra this season. No longer most efficient will I be writing this weekly picks column, but I crawl to even be podcasting lots this one year. As a topic of reality, that you just can peaceable crawl ahead and circle every Monday, Tuesday and Friday to your calendar from now till February, on fable of that’s when I crawl to be joining Will Brinson on the Procure Six Podcast (Click right here to study it out). The Procure Six pod is my well-liked podcast on the glean on fable of A. I’m on it and B. it’s the most efficient each day NFL podcast spherical.
In case your first belief after hearing that news was as soon as, “That’s big that that you just can bear podcast, John, but we must stare your exquisite face. How produce we produce that?” Immense question, and I’m glad to respond it. For the 2020 season, now not most efficient will our podcast be published on YouTube, but we will even be doing a each day Procure Six video display veil for CBS Sports HQ. If you’re now not searching at CBS Sports HQ on daily foundation, you needs to be, and that is the reason on fable of it’s a free streaming sports actions web draw that offers continuous whine the least bit hours of the day, and most severely, you procure to stare me. Also, that you just can stare it on extra than one platforms like Roku, Apple TV and Amazon Fireplace TV.
At final, whereas you procure through my NFL picks and desire you need extra picks, on fable of you are a picks addict: It’s likely you’ll well check out the Week 1 picks from six varied CBSSports.com NFL writers by clicking right here.
MY GOODNESS, that was as soon as a prolonged introduction, but after surviving the damage hornets, the pandemic and the squirrel who had bubonic plague, I knew you guys would perchance well continue to exist a long intro. That being stated, I deem I’ve made you guys wait long ample, so let’s procure to the picks.
NFL Week 1 Picks
Inexperienced Bay at Minnesota
1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Level spread: Vikings, -2.5
I’m now not clear both of those groups truly had a opinion this offseason, and if they did, I truly don’t bear any opinion what it was as soon as. The Vikings completely revamped their defense by dumping extra than one starters, which a shrimp of worries me, on fable of that manner they are going into Week 1 after a deadly disease shortened offseason with a bunch of original starters on defense. As for the Packers, after going to the NFC title game final season, I absolutely anticipated them so that you just can add some receiving encourage for Aaron Rodgers within the draft, and I deem Aaron Rodgers also belief that was as soon as going to occur, on fable of that’s the most efficient manner to point to why he started pounding tequila after Inexperienced Bay drafted Jordan Cherish.
I’m now not going to resolve Rodgers for going straight to the tequila and that is the reason primarily on fable of I’ve performed a couple of of my most efficient work after pounding tequila. On Rodgers’ extinguish, this feels like a season the attach apart he is going to be fiddling with a chip on his shoulder, which is extra or less fitting, on fable of chips crawl effectively with tequila. The one snort I love about Rodgers is that he will get to launch up the season in opposition to the Vikings defense that I perfect talked about. I truly deem the Vikings will turn out having a handsome defense this season, especially since they added Yannick Ngakoue, but I impact now not deem the unit is going to gel handsome away, which is why Rodgers is going to shred them.
No longer most efficient am I going to procure the Packers right here, but I’m also predicting that Rodgers drinks seven fingers of tequila after the game to celebrate the have interaction. On a a shrimp linked novel, I drank seven fingers of tequila as soon as in college and I got so inebriated that I now bear a pile of rocks sitting on my porch so I can rely down the times till I die, perfect like Kirk Cousins.
I’m now not clear what number of rocks I truly bear left, but it certainly’s in truth now not as many as Kirk. That worries me.
The procure: Packers 20-17 over Vikings
L.A. Chargers at Cincinnati
4: 05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Level spread: Chargers, -3
As the resident Bengals homer right here at CBSSports.com, I made a state after Joe Burrow was as soon as drafted that I’d by no manner procure in opposition to him in any game ever, and now that I’m fascinated with it, I perchance set now not bear made that state, on fable of I’m critically fascinated with picking in opposition to him in his VERY FIRST GAME. My glorious insist with Burrow is that he got zero educate within the spring, and that the most efficient defense he is gone up in opposition to since being drafted is the Bengals defense (For anyone who does now not follow the Bengals, their defense is rarely always handsome). Burrow is going to pass from throwing passes in opposition to his bear crew to throwing passes in opposition to a defense that has two of the most efficient bound-rushers within the NFL (Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram) and one among the most efficient corners (Chris Harris). This would be like ingesting three sizzling canine at dinner after which thinking that you just can beat Joey Chestnut in a sizzling dog ingesting contest.
And likewise you know what, let’s be true about this complete insist, the final time a man named Joe was as soon as accountable for a bunch of Bengal tigers, it did now not figure out effectively for anyone — until you rely Carole Baskin, and I’m now not going to rely Carole Baskin — so I wager I truly must crawl at the side of the Chargers.
I would perchance well peaceable also point out that No. 1 total picks appear to battle in Week 1. Throughout the last 15 years, there had been six quarterbacks enthusiastic with the first total procure who ALSO started in Week 1 within the center of their rookie season and folk quarterbacks bear blended to have interaction precisely zero games (0-5-1). That does now not seem like a handsome snort for the Bengals.
The procure: Chargers 23-20 over Bengals
Tampa Bay at Recent Orleans
4: 25 p.m. ET (FOX)
Level spread: Saints, -3.5
As that you just can bear perchance noticed, lots of crazy issues bear took place in 2020, and I truly must exclaim, the most surprising one must be the indisputable reality that Tom Brady on the total was actual into a one man crimewave. No longer most efficient did he procure kicked out of a closed park after illegally entering it within the center of quarantine, however the Buccaneers quarterback also got caught trespassing at a man’s condo after he by likelihood walked into it and the worst share is that he does now not HAVE A SINGLE OUNCE OF REMORSE about any of this.
Essentially the most efficient motive I’m pointing any of this out is on fable of those issues most efficient took place on fable of Brady couldn’t obtain a situation to educate. On account of the pandemic, the NFL canceled practices and OTAs for all 32 groups, which manner Brady did now not procure to officially educate with his crew till August. Usually, by the point this game kicks off, Brady is most efficient going to bear roughly 5 weeks of educate under his belt, which manner he’ll most efficient bear had 5 weeks to procure glad with all americans on his offense.
On the assorted hand, the Saints impact now not even truly must educate. Their offense is made up of a bunch of guys who already bear handsome chemistry on fable of they’ve played collectively for so long. I mean, whereas you’re wondering what Sean Payton’s self perception-level is that this one year, HE’S LITERALLY BEEN SHARING HIS TEAM’S BEST PLAYS ON TWITTER.
Nothing says “Vitality pass” slightly like your head coach sharing his well-liked performs on Twitter. That’s one thing you in truth impact now not produce until you know for clear that there is now not this kind of thing as a manner the assorted crew is going to finish you. I deem the Buccaneers are going to be handsome this one year, but they bear got too many original gamers and I impact now not deem all americans appears to be like to be going to be on the a linked online page advance Week 1.
The procure: Saints 27-24 over Buccaneers
Dallas at L.A. Rams
8: 20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Level spread: Cowboys, -2.5
I’m now not clear whereas that you just can be on the original seat after perfect one game, but I feel like that’s precisely the attach apart Mike McCarthy will be if the Cowboys lose to the Rams on Sunday. The subject for McCarthy is that the final time these two groups played got right here final December in a game the attach apart JASON GARRETT led Dallas to a horrible have interaction (44-21). I’m now not clear what would qualify as a nightmare launch to the season for McCarthy, but I truly must deem that shedding to a crew that Garrett beat by 23 substances would in truth be stop to the head of the list.
I’ve certainly been flip-flopping about who I must procure on this game. First, I was as soon as leaning Cowboys, but then I determined to binge-stare “Laborious Knocks” over the weekend, and now, I deem I’m leaning Rams. In actuality, I would perchance well peaceable perchance finish searching at “Laborious Knocks” on fable of the a linked snort occurs yearly: HBO one way or the opposite brainwashes me into thinking that the “Laborious Knocks” crew is going to be handsome. You know what, I crawl to separate the adaptation, I crawl to exclaim the Rams are going to be handsome this one year, but they’ll lose this game. I deem the Cowboys bear too worthy firepower and they’ll bear a ache of offensive surprise that they by no manner truly had with Garrett, who perceived to chase the a linked snort a week, and likewise, who I impact now not deem believes in surprises. I’m guessing he is by no manner been invited to a surprise birthday event.
The procure: Cowboys 34-27 over Rams
Lock of the Week
Houston at Kansas City
Thursday, 8: 20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Level spread: Chiefs, -9.5
The final time we saw these two groups on the a linked enviornment collectively was as soon as encourage in January when the Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead in a game that they within the extinguish misplaced 51-31, and as all of us know, the most efficient snort extra embarrassing than blowing a 24-point lead is getting blasted 51-7 after you held that lead. The handsome news for the Texans this time spherical is that they is now not going to must ache about blowing a 24-point lead on this game, on fable of they’re now not even going to ranking 24 substances.
To present you a mercurial recap of Houston’s offseason: They traded away their most efficient offensive participant (DeAndre Hopkins), and to be true, I’m now not truly clear what took place after that, on fable of I done paying attention. On the Chiefs’ extinguish, they’re returning 18 of 22 starters from their Shiny Bowl crew, they managed to re-signal every crucial participant and they did all of that although they most efficient had $177 OF SALARY CAP SPACE GOING INTO FREE AGENCY. That’s like going to a automobile dealership with $12 and one way or the opposite coming dwelling with a Ferrari.
At final, did I mention that the Chiefs led the AFC in passing yards final season and that they’ll be going up in opposition to a Texans defense that had the worst bound defense within the AFC? On fable of if I did now not mention that, I feel like I would perchance well peaceable. Also, whereas you give Andy Reid previous traditional time to prepare for a game, he is now not going to lose, therefore, I will not procure the Chiefs to lose.
To commemorate Mahomes’ original $503 million contract, I was as soon as going to procure the Chiefs to have interaction by 503 million substances, but my editor told me that’s now not practical, so I crawl to eradicate out that first zero in 503 million and crawl at the side of 53.
The procure: Chiefs 53-20 over Texans
Bonus Lock of the week
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants
Monday, 7: 15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Level spread: Steelers, -4.5
It be perchance a handsome snort that Giants followers don’t seem like going to be allowed to relieve this game, on fable of I’m now not clear any of them would emotionally continue to exist the beating I deem the Giants are going to eradicate.
On paper — and in trusty life — this game feels like a entire mismatch. Sadly for the Giants, the Steelers are on the total built to utilize every weakness the Giants bear. To set up this in perspective, let’s produce a mercurial belief exercise: Sigh in regards to the total issues you’re harmful at after which imagine having all of them thrown to your face straight away. For me, it’d be like if I entered a karaoke contest the attach apart I had to philosophize in German. Correctly, I impact now not know German, I will not philosophize, and I’ve by no manner won a contest of any sort in my life , so I would perchance well in truth lose, and perfect so we’re clear, I’m the Giants on this insist.
Here’s a stare upon every part that would perchance perchance crawl irascible for Recent York:
- Daniel Jones was as soon as sacked a median of three.17 cases per launch final season, which was as soon as the third-most within the NFL. The Steelers led the NFL in sacks final one year.
- Daniel Jones fumbled 18 cases in 12 games final season. The Steelers led the NFL in fumble recoveries.
- The Steelers’ glorious strength is their defensive line. The Giants’ starting left handle opted out for the season and the placement will now be manned by a rookie.
This game is also going to present us a Shiny Bowl-winning coach (Mike Tomlin) in opposition to a vital-one year head coach (Joe Lift) who will barely bear had 5 weeks of on-enviornment educate with his crew before this game takes situation.
I truly don’t bear any opinion how wholesome Ben Roethlisberger is going to stare, but I’m now not clear it is going to topic. I also impact now not know if Roethlisberger can philosophize in German, but that’s perchance now not going to topic, both.
The procure: Steelers 27-13 over Giants
Closing Lock of the Week file for 2019: 16-2 straight up, 7-10-1 in opposition to the spread
NFL Week 1 picks: Your complete leisure
Falcons 34-31 over Seahawks
Bills 20-13 over Jets
Patriots 19-16 over Dolphins
Eagles 30-20 over Washington
Lions 20-16 over Bears
Panthers 24-21 over Raiders
Colts 31-17 over Jaguars
Ravens 27-20 over Browns
49ers 26-23 over Cardinals
Titans 23-16 over Broncos
Closing Week
Supreme procure: Since there weren’t any traditional season games played final week, I wager I would perchance well peaceable perchance perfect utilize this condo to point my most efficient procure from 2019. Sooner than the season started, I picked the Chiefs to have interaction the Shiny Bowl after which the Chiefs went on to have interaction the Shiny Bowl, which obviously manner that my Shiny Bowl procure for the 2020 season is also going to have interaction.
So who am I picking?
That’s a big question, and that you just can obtain the answer by clicking right here to stare my predictions for the total 2020 NFL season. If you click over, now not most efficient will you detect my Shiny Bowl procure, but you furthermore mght can procure to stare who I’m picking to have interaction every division and who I’m picking to procure the playoffs. Also, whereas you click over, that you just can launch to impress why Will Brinson has a conspiracy theory that I’m being brainwashed by Jerry Jones. I impact now not deem I’m being brainwashed, but I notify that any individual who’s being brainwashed wouldn’t know that they are being brainwashed. Crap. I’d need been brainwashed.
Worst procure: Despite the indisputable reality that I crawl to bear lots of “worst picks” for this share starting subsequent week, I truly don’t bear one thing else for this week, so as a substitute, I feel like I would perchance well peaceable utilize this share to hand out the award for worst offseason by any NFL crew, and yup, you guessed it, the award goes to Washington. If Dan Snyder owned a bakery rather then a football crew, it would perchance well bear gone out of business 11 years ago and it would perchance well had been so disastrous that the authorities perchance would bear ordered all bakeries to prevent perfect to be clear that that Snyder by no manner owns one other one.
Total picks file since 2013
After searching at my straight-up file plummet for 2 horrifying seasons (2015-2016), the tide has slowly been turning over the previous three years (2017-2019), and I impact now not must sound cocky, but I deem I’d crawl 256-0 picking games in 2020, even supposing I’m already initiating to remorse that Panthers over Raiders procure.
Closing 2019 traditional-season file
Straight-up: 163-92-1 (Ranked first total at CBSSports.com)
In opposition to the spread: 120-130-6 (Did now not frightful first total)
Closing 2018 traditional-season file
Straight-up: 166-88-2
In opposition to the spread: 123-126-7
Closing 2017 traditional-season file
Straight up: 161-95
In opposition to the spread: 124-121-11
Closing 2016 traditional-season file
Straight up: 147-107-2
In opposition to the spread: 116-129-11
Closing 2015 traditional-season file
Straight up: 152-104
In opposition to the spread: 126-130
Closing 2014 traditional-season file
Straight up: 164-91-1
In opposition to the spread: 125-131
Closing 2013 traditional-season file
Straight up: 165-90-1
In opposition to the spread: 124-132
It’s likely you’ll well obtain John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he is now not doing a form of issues, he is maybe sound asleep, on fable of he is most efficient slept three entire hours since April 7.